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000
FXUS64 KSHV 162116
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
416 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON TO SAY THE LEAST AS ONE LONE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE WIND
SHEAR. THIS CELL TRACKED FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT TX SEWRD ACROSS
NW LA WHERE ROTATION BEGAN TO INCREASE...PROMPTING A SUCCESSION
OF TORNADO WARNINGS FROM THE TX/LA STATE LINE DOWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. NUMEROUS SEVERE REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM
THIS LONE STORM INCLUDING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NW LA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 IN NW LA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKING NORTH WHERE INSTABILITY WAS
QUELLED A BIT BY MORNING RAINFALL...SHWRS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT E/NE INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN IT/S HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH STILL APPEARS SLOW
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK...LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT
IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETREATING BACK NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED TO RESPECT THE FRNTL
BNDRY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM A CENTER OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTH INTO
LOUISIANA...AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR AND IFR WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT NEAR 17/05 UTC INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY
AROUND 17/16 UTC. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 7 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT NEAR 18/00 UTC. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  86  69  88  69 /  40  10  10  10  10
MLU  67  84  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10  10
DEQ  64  82  67  87  66 /  50  20  20  10  10
TXK  65  82  69  87  68 /  50  20  20  10  10
ELD  65  82  68  87  66 /  60  20  20  10  10
TYR  68  86  70  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
GGG  68  86  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  89  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/06