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000
FXUS64 KSHV 130757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY TODAY...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW 50S AT MOST SITES AND STILL SOME HOURS OF COOLING AHEAD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT SEWD TODAY...AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE UPTICK TODAY AND TUESDAY...AS NW
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW AND SLY SFC FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE
BAJA LOW. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO OPEN UP AS IT IS PICKED UP IN
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND MOVES ACROSS TX WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS STEADILY AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE EURO NOW SHOWING
QUITE A BIT QPF. THE NAM REMAINS QUITE CONSERVATIVE...SO HAVE HELD
OFF WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. DISTURBED
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY WARRANT AT LEAST A 20 POP EACH DAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 14/12 UTC. ON THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST. LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 6 KNOTS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH 7 TO 12 KNOTS
TODAY. WINDS TO HOLD AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  57  85  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  81  55  86  59  83 /   0   0   0  10  30
DEQ  83  53  86  59  77 /   0   0   0  30  50
TXK  81  58  86  62  77 /   0   0   0  20  50
ELD  80  52  85  59  79 /   0   0   0  10  50
TYR  84  59  86  64  79 /   0   0  10  30  50
GGG  82  58  86  62  79 /   0   0  10  30  50
LFK  83  57  87  62  80 /   0   0  10  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/05