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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250229
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
929 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WAS CARRIED ON THE NMC 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR A GAINESVILLE
TEXAS TO DE RIDDER LOUISIANA LINE AND THIS FITS WELL WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LINE FOR TONIGHT AND CARRY THIS TREND INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS INTO EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DO NOT
EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING...BUT HEAVY RAIN RESULTING FROM TRAINING ECHOS
MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT QPF IN A FEW AREAS. THIS MAKES FOR
DIFFICULT QFP GRIDS DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE. WILL FOLLOW HPC QPF
ESTIMATES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT DO EXPECT LOCALIZED ONE
INCH TOTALS.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO COVER THE ADDITIONAL OF MORE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

FORECAST OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS NE TX HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURG THE EVE...
UNDERNEATH SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE KTYR AND KGGG VCNTY...WHILE RAIN COOLED AIR NEAR
KLFK WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AT THAT LOCATION UNLIKELY
THIS EVE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THESE AREAS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH
RAIN COOLED AIR MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM I-35 CORRIDOR CONVECTION MAY SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION
UNTIL 03-05Z...AND PERHAPS PUSH EAST TO NEAR LA STATE LINE BEFORE
ENDING. LIGHT EAST WINDS BECMG SE 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 25/15Z. WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN UPPER LOW...ISOLD AFTN CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
NE TX...POSSIBLY NW LA/SW AR/SE OK. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  86  70  88  70 /  20  30  20  20  20
MLU  64  88  67  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEQ  62  82  67  86  68 /  10  40  20  20  20
TXK  64  81  69  87  70 /  10  40  20  20  20
ELD  61  84  66  87  67 /  10  20  10  20  20
TYR  71  83  71  88  71 /  50  40  20  20  20
GGG  70  83  70  88  70 /  40  40  20  20  20
LFK  70  86  71  89  70 /  50  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/07