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000
FXUS64 KSHV 171515
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SW AR/NE TX MCS CONTINUES TO DECAY AS OF THIS MID-MORNING...AS IR
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS WARMING. HOWEVER...MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 2-4 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER
THE DFW METROPLEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SEWRD
PUSH OF THE ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT OVER ECNTRL TX...AS THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THE GUST FRONT PASSAGE HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
30-35KTS THAN FARTHER NE INTO SE OK/SW AR. THIS MCS HAS BEEN
DRIVEN BY AN MCV THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E ACROSS EXTREME NE OK
INTO SW MO/NW AR...JUST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
TRAVERSING CNTRL OK. THE AIR MASS TO THE SE ACROSS DEEP E TX/N LA
HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...WITH SFC CAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 1445Z. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER OK
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
BNDRY ITSELF SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE SHORT TERMS PROGS DO HINT AT ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS ESE ACROSS THE
REGION.

HAVE MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...MAINLY
TO RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR. DID EXPAND LIKELY POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONCENTRATING THEM FARTHER N ACROSS SE OK/NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPANDED CHANCE POPS
FARTHER S AND E AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BNDRY
SHOULD FOCUS SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
BE ISOLATED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER SE
OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF NE TX...AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT WARMING.

UPDATED ZONES ARE NOW AVAILABLE...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE LINE WAS
FOLLOWED BY A EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SO EXPECT
SOME MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF A KADF...KASL...KJSO LINE. MODERATE TURBULENCE AND
SURFACE WIND GUST TO 35 KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. FOR THE LATER PART
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER SCATTERED TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS...WITH AREA COVERAGE HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  73  89  72  90 /  50  40  40  50  40
MLU  91  72  90  71  89 /  40  40  50  60  40
DEQ  85  71  85  69  87 /  80  70  60  70  40
TXK  87  71  88  71  87 /  80  60  60  70  40
ELD  89  71  89  70  87 /  60  50  50  60  40
TYR  88  73  91  73  90 /  80  30  30  30  30
GGG  88  73  90  73  91 /  80  30  40  40  40
LFK  92  73  92  73  92 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/14