National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 192112
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
WILL LOWER SOME. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN HALF AGAIN...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY.
ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT SPINS ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WEST TEXAS LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE FEEDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SYSTEMS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND NUDGE THE PLAIN LOW EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER AND
MORE SEVERE THREAT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NOTED. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 20/08Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT INTO THE
VFR BY NOON. WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE BY MID
MORNING MONDAY TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS.

POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN THIS TAF ISSUANCES.
TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK/N TX COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-30 TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  88  69 /  10  10  20  50  50
MLU  72  89  72  88  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
DEQ  68  87  70  82  64 /  20  20  40  60  60
TXK  71  88  72  85  66 /  10  10  30  60  60
ELD  71  89  71  87  67 /  10  10  10  50  60
TYR  72  90  73  86  70 /  10  10  20  50  60
GGG  72  90  73  87  69 /  10  10  20  50  60
LFK  72  90  73  89  71 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ070-071.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/09