000
FXUS64 KSHV 142051
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWRD FROM
MEXICO INTO FAR W TX NEAR EL PASO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING TO USHER IN MORE LL MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE...FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS RATHER DIRTY WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHIFTING EAST. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SHWRS AND TSTMS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY ACROSS E TX AND SE OK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXPANDING EWRD INTO SW AR AND NRN LA. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION.
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE KEY TO INITIATING CONVECTION AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW
COVERAGE TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. POPS BEGIN TO
DECREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT THAT LOOKED QUITE PROMISING TO MOVE IN BY THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK NOW APPEARS LESS POISED TO DO SO ATTM.
OF COURSE...WE ARE ENTERING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY SO THE
FREQUENCY OF COLD FRONTS MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH IS BEGINNING TO
WANE. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH MOS NUMBERS THE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FRONT STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION BY MID WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
15/08Z. AFTER 09Z...EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS. THE LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MIXING AND LIFTING BRING CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT...AROUND 15Z.
HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 15Z IN AND AROUND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE TSTMS WILL BECOME STRONGER TOWARD
MIDDAY AS THEY SPREAD WEST TO EAST...CREATING HAZARDS...INCLUDING
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 6 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  80  62  81  67 /  10  40  40  20  10
MLU  58  81  61  82  66 /  10  20  30  20  20
DEQ  58  75  60  77  64 /  10  50  50  30  20
TXK  60  78  61  79  66 /  10  50  50  30  20
ELD  56  80  60  80  64 /  10  20  40  30  20
TYR  63  77  63  81  68 /  10  50  50  20  10
GGG  61  78  62  81  67 /  10  50  50  20  10
LFK  61  79  63  84  68 /  10  40  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/14