608
FXUS62 KJAX 301852
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
252 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Shortwave trough extending well to the north and across our area
will shift eastward this afternoon and push offshore by late
evening. In it`s wake, a northwest flow aloft and some diminished
upper level clouds expected after midnight. As previously mentioned,
the flow today is weak enough for both the west coast and east
coast sea breezes to move inland this afternoon, and adequate
low level moisture to spark isolated, generally weak convection.
Some enhanced scattered convection, though relatively weak,
can be expected mainly across southeast GA and a narrow corridor
close to the St Johns River Basin. Expect most convection to
dissipate shortly after midnight. Some patchy to areas of
fog can be expected late tonight, with the higher confidence
of fog across northeast FL. Lows tonight will be mild again in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The early morning fog will begin to lift a couple of hours after
sunrise on Wednesday. Clear skies will then prevail from mid
morning to the afternoon. Shower and storm chances will again make
a return from the afternoon to early evening hours as the Gulf and
Atlantic seabreeze move inland, with showers and storms beginning
to clear as the night progresses.

A clear start to the day on Thursday with another chance for
shower and storm activity beginning during the afternoon hours as
the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes move inland. Most activity will
likely be along the I-75 corridor and eastward to US-301 in north
central FL, as a dry airmass begins to moves into SE GA
through the day on Thursday.

Daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will range in the
mid to upper 80s, with some areas on Thursday passing the 90F
mark for locations along the I-75 corridor in NE FL and SE GA.
Overnight, temperatures will dip to the around the mid 60s, with
warmer temperatures along the St. Johns River and coastal
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

With the a dry airmass in place over the area, dry conditions are
expected on Friday. By Saturday, shower/storm chances will spread
from SE GA and southward into NE FL as the first of two
shortwaves begin to move across the southeastern CONUS. On Sunday
the second shortwave will move over the eastern CONUS, again
seeing the shower/storm chances spreading from north to south as
the day progresses. A dry start to the upcoming week as ridging
aloft will keep chances of precipitation at a minimal.

Inland temperatures will get into the lower 90s while coastal
areas will benefit from the onshore flow, keeping temperatures in
the low to upper 80s. This weekend will have daytime temperatures
mainly in the upper 80s before temperatures rise into the lower
90s across the area at the start of the upcoming week. Overnight
lows during this period will remain mainly in the mid to upper
60s.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR cigs at this time. Given the low level moisture, forcing aloft,
and sea breeze boundaries we are seeing a few showers develop
over northeast FL, and may not be out of the question a weak brief
t-storm forms near the northeast FL TAF sites through 00z. Not
enough confidence for a TEMPO group at this time for any MVFR or
lower condition. If any t-storm forms, would be relatively weak.
Isolated showers and t-storm chances should be diminishing fairly
quickly after about 01z-03z with skies tending to clear more later
tonight just in time for some patchy-areas fog to form. Have
continued to advertise MVFR and possible IFR or less at JAX, GNV,
CRG, and VQQ from about 06z-13z. The fog should dissipate by
13z-14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure centered well off the east is giving a moderate southeast
flow over the area waters rest of today, with flow turning more
south tonight. Another high pressure center will then build over
coastal New England later this week, resulting in onshore winds
redeveloping over our local waters. A cold front is then expected
to enter the southeast states by Saturday night and Sunday,
possibly bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to our
region by late in the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate to high risk of rip currents expected through
tonight with the fairly breezy onshore flow and surf of 2-4 ft.
Moderate to high risk for Wednesday, with the more enhance risk
again for northeast FL beaches though winds will be lighter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  87  65  89 /  30  10   0  10
SSI  68  83  67  81 /  10  20   0  10
JAX  65  87  65  86 /  10  20   0  10
SGJ  66  86  67  84 /  10  20  10  10
GNV  63  89  63  89 /  10  20   0  20
OCF  64  89  65  89 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$