435
FXUS62 KJAX 010738
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Weak shortwave aloft shifts off the SE US coast today as ridging
gradually rebuilds back over the region. Low level moisture and
clearing skies will lead to patchy fog developing across inland
areas early this morning. Fog will be locally dense at times
mainly for inland NE FL around sunrise. Fog will dissipate by mid-
morning. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s and to
around 90 in north-central FL. Weak pressure gradient, lingering
moisture, and diurnal heating will produce widely scattered
showers and isolated storms developing along the Atlantic and Gulf
sea breezes as they shift inland in the afternoon and evening
hours. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Another round of patchy
to areas of fog is expected to develop tonight mainly during the
predawn and early morning hours at inland locations.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Ridging aloft will build over our region in the wake of the
departing shortwave trough that will progress offshore of
the Carolinas on Wednesday evening. A weak surface pressure
pattern will prevail locally, with low level flow shifting to
easterly, which will advect a drier and more subsident air mass
over our area. Just enough moisture may remain around for isolated
convection to develop towards sunset where the Atlantic and Gulf
coast sea breezes collide, generally for locations along the
Interstate 75 corridor. The drier air mass and plenty of sunshine
will allow highs to soar to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, while
highs top out in the lower 80s at coastal locations, where
prevailing onshore winds will become breezy during the afternoon
hours. Patchy to areas of locally dense fog will again be possible
during the predawn and early morning hours on Friday at inland
locations. Otherwise, fair skies and southeasterly low level flow
will result in lows only falling to the mid 60s inland and the
upper 60s to around 70 at coastal locations.

A large trough digging over the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies,
and the High Plains States will direct a shortwave trough
northeastward from the Ozarks on Thursday afternoon, the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday night, and then across the Ohio Valley and
Great lakes region on Friday and Friday night. PVA at the base of
this shortwave trough will cross the southeastern states on Friday,
which will flatten ridging over our region by late in the day. A
dry air mass is expected to linger throughout much of Friday across
our area, but model guidance is not in agreement on how quickly
convection associated with the approaching PVA will approach
our region during the afternoon and evening hours. Model blends
currently keep most of our area dry into the evening hours, although
some isolated convection developing along mesoscale boundaries
cannot be ruled out. Plenty of sunshine from Friday morning through
the mid-afternoon hours and the lingering dry air mass will again
boost highs to around 90 at most inland locations, with the afternoon
Atlantic sea breeze keeping coastal highs in the lower 80s. Lows on
Friday night will only fall to the 65-70 degree range at most locations
as convective debris clouds from upstream convection filter overhead.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Flow aloft will become zonal over the southeastern states this weekend
through Monday of next week as longwave trough progresses from the High
Plains northeastward through the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes
states. A series of shortwave troughs embedded within the zonal flow
pattern will progress across our area during this time frame, with deeper
moisture pooling over the southeastern states ahead of a frontal boundary
that will eventually stall out well to the northwest of our region.
Scattered mostly diurnal convection can be expected each day across our
area this weekend. Weak flow aloft should preclude any severe weather threat,
with longer term models also suggesting that higher CAPE values will remain
west of our region. Temperatures this weekend will remain slightly above
early May climatology this weekend through Monday.

Forecast confidence decreases on Monday as another shortwave trough embedded
in the zonal flow pattern progresses across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
which could advect another PVA lobe across the Deep South that would spark
mainly diurnal convection across our area. Model blends currently depict
decreasing rainfall chances on Monday, and temperatures in this drier scenario
would begin their climb back up to near 90 degrees at inland locations. Ridging
aloft will then build towards the FL peninsula on Tuesday, as our area would be
downstream of of another digging longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest,
the Rockies, and the High Plains. This weather pattern will bring increasingly
hot and drier weather to our area for much of the rest of next week, as
Atlantic surface ridging extends its axis westward across the FL peninsula.
West-southwesterly low level flow will strengthen, which will delay or hinder
the development of the cooling afternoon Atlantic sea breeze, resulting in
temperatures soaring to the lower 90s inland and the 85-90 degree range at
coastal locations. Overnight lows through the long term period will only fall
to the 65-70 degree range inland and the lower 70s at coastal
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers over SSI will shift offshore within the next couple of
hours. Light and variable winds will continue through the mid-
morning. Increased low level moisture will support better chances
for fog/low stratus towards sunrise and have continued LIFR fog
chances at VQQ, and MVFR fog chances at GNV/JAX in the 08-11Z time
frame. Diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations pushing inland
will support another round of isolated to widely scattered
showers by the afternoon hours at all TAF sites, but TSRA chances
remain too low below 20 percent for inclusion at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Weakening frontal boundary will stall just North of the waters
today. Winds will be light with afternoon surges of onshore winds
with the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland. High pressure
center will then build over coastal New England late this week. A
cold front is then expected to enter the southeast states by
Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our region by late in the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue today for NE FL
beaches. Moderate risk on Thursday as seas subside. Moderate risk
of rip currents continue for SE GA beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  64  89  65 /  20  20  10   0
SSI  82  68  80  67 /  30  10   0   0
JAX  87  66  85  66 /  30   0  10   0
SGJ  84  68  82  68 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  88  65  89  65 /  30  30  20   0
OCF  90  65  90  65 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$