National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 171103
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
703 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early this morning...Some patchy dense fog is expected along the
US17/I-95 corridors of the Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL/SE
GA through sunrise. SPSJAX has already been posted.

Today/Tonight...High pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic will
extend westward just to the North of SE GA/NE FL region Today,
then this ridge axis will shift south of the region through
tonight. The Southeast to South steering flow today will shift to
the Southwest to West through the overnight hours. Periods of high
clouds will continue to stream across the region from the West at
times with mainly partly cloudy skies, but the high cirrus will
be thick enough at times to prevent Max temps from reaching 90
today, and still expect mainly mid/upper 80s inland, while the
East coast sea breeze will keep the Atlantic Coast temps in the
lower 80s this afternoon as Southeast winds increase to 10-15G20
mph behind the sea breeze front, but still not enough moisture to
provide for any shower activity. Enough high clouds remain around
tonight to allow for slightly milder Min Temps in the lower 60s
inland and middle 60s along the Atlantic Coast, and likely enough
cloud cover to prevent any significant late night fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Thursday, low level ridge pattern shifting back over northern FL
through the morning and then move into the NE Gulf of Mexico in
the latter half of the day as a mid level shortwave impulse shifts
eastward off the southeast coast and drags a weak cold front to
the northern portions of the region to the Carolina coast. The
day will start with patchy fog or low stratus over far western
inland NE FL to lift under persistent mid and high level clouds.
Dry air in the low levels will prevent any rain chances. The low
level flow pattern will become west southwesterly with a pinned
Atlantic seabreeze confined areas east of I-95. Highs temperatures
will warm to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees east of highway
301 to I-95 corridor over NE FL with upper 80s elsewhere inland
with cooler highs in the low to mid 80s at the coast due to the
Atlantic seabreeze.

Friday, light westerly low level flow continues with low level
ridging just south of the area from the eastern Gulf into central
and southern FL supporting light westerly winds and again keeping
the Atlantic seabreeze along and east of I-95. Dry low level air
will prevent showers across most of the area with exception of
northern portions of SE GA where moisture levels will increase
to 1.4-1.5 inches of PWAT ahead of an approaching cold front
moving east from the lower MS valley into the deep south will
allow for some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two to develop along the Altamaha basin. Hot readings expected
as highs reach the low 90s along and west of I-95 with upper 80s
along the Altamaha basin and mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will
be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Saturday, low level ridge will sink into south FL away from the FL
peninsula and allow for a few showers and an isolated T`storm to
form over SE GA in the afternoon where greatest moisture will
reside as the approaching cold front slows it`s progress due to
upper level support racing away into the western Atlantic waters.
Highs stay hot in the low 90s inland amid the warm westerly low
level flow and mid 80s coast where the east coast seabreeze stays
pinned. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Sunday, cold front will sink into SE GA with isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and thunderstorms forming over most of the
area. Slightly more clouds Sunday compared to Saturday will help
lower highs to the upper 80s to around 90 and mid 80s at the
beaches. Lows will again be in the mid 60s.

Monday, the cold front will sink through NE FL in the afternoon
and the combination of moisture ahead of the boundary, instability
from cooler mid level temperatures, and lift from convergence along
the cold front will generate scattered showers and T`storms. The
presence of 40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear and steep mid level
lapse rates may aid some strong to isolated severe T`storms that
may include gusty winds and hail. Highs will be cooler as winds
turn about from the southwesterly to northerly behind the sinking
cold front by late in the day. The clouds and storms will lead to
cooler highs in the mid to upper 70s over SE GA and the low to
mid 80s over NE FL. Lows will be in the mid 60s over NE FL and
lower 60s over SE GA.

Tuesday, high pressure over the TN river valley will build north
of the region with northerly winds turning easterly over coastal
portions of the area as the high shifts eastward. A dry airmass
will create mostly sunny skies. Highs will be warmest over southern
zones with mid to upper 80s over north central FL with low 80s
elsewhere. Lows will be cooler in the mid/upper 50s over SE GA
and Suwannee valley and the low 60s over rest of NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Morning fog will continue until 13Z along the coastal and duval
TAF sites with MVFR visibility that may lower down to LIFR level
restrictions. Fog may persist a bit longer at SSI until 14Z. VFR
conditions will resume after 14Z and high clouds will move across
the region and lessen a bit this afternoon. Diurnal heating will
mix down southeasterly winds 9-12 knots late this morning to
midday 15-17Z with an east coast sea breeze moving onshore first.
Winds will decrease tonight and turn southerly 4-8 knots, then
under 5 knots after 08Z with mid level clouds becoming broken to
overcast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure ridge axis across or just north of the local waters
will continue a South to Southeast flow through Thursday with
speeds at 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft. Weak frontal boundary will
push through the SE US Thursday Night and stall just north of the
waters Friday and Saturday with a weak Southwest flow expected,
along with local Southeast to South sea breezes near the Atlantic
Coast. Frontal boundary makes a slow movement through the local
waters late Sunday into Monday of early next week. No headlines
expected through the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today and Thursday as
Southeast/Onshore sea breeze winds continue during the
afternoon/evening hours both days with surf/breakers around 2
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Dry weather pattern through the end of this week with rain chances
arriving this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Today, southerly flow aloft will create light southerly winds about
8-12 mph with both the Gulf coast and east coast seabreezes moving
inland towards highway 301 generating winds 10-15 mph behind their
boundaries. Low mixing heights at the Atlantic coast due to the
cooler marine air behind the east coast seabreeze and light winds
will create low daytime dispersions today. Min RH values will be
just above critical values 28-33 percent inland today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.

                        Record High   Record High   Average First Date
                        Friday 4/19  Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)    92/1995       92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)     91/2013       91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)     94/2011       94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)       91/1968       93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  64  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  86  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  81  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  88  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  88  61  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$