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000
FXUS63 KFSD 240912
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
412 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SHARP RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY LOSE
HOLD AS MID LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IMPINGES A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. KEEWATIN HIGH CONTINUES TO
FILTER DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS INTO THE AREA ON EASTERLY FLOW...
BUT MOISTENING ON STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS
LEADING TO EXPANSION OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD.
MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OF LATE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
AREA CORRELATES QUITE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT.  LIFT SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST AND NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. HOWEVER...LIKELY
THE LEADING MID LEVEL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LIFTING NORTHEAST WHILE
RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES SOMEWHAT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECTED TO START TO
DEVELOP BY LATER MORNING FROM LOWER BRULE AREAS INTO THE LOWER JAMES
VALLEY.  MUCH OF TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION DEFINED BY 305K NET
ISENTROPIC LIFT...CONSIDERING WHERE DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL
IMPEDE PROGRESS SOMEWHAT. CONTINUED TO INTRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY
BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AS LIFT FORCING SPREADS EAST TOWARDS AND
EAST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM IN AND AROUND 750 HPA LEVEL INITIATION...
SO WHILE THUNDER WILL BE FAR FROM PREVALENT...DOES WARRANT A MORE
ISOLATED MENTION.

SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I29...ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. AT THIS TIME...LIKELY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO TOUCH 30 MPH SUSTAINED OR EVEN GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND WILL DROP MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...AND TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
REDUCING THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TOUGH FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT. ON SATURDAY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE VERY SATURATED ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS DESPITE THIS...BUT
AM CONCERNED IT WOULD TAKE TILL AT LEAST MID DAY IF NOT LONGER TO
ERODE STRATUS IN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET. AS SUCH...LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRATUS WILL BE THE MOST STUBBORN. THIS ALSO PLAYS
INTO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. SURFACE BASED CAPE IN SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA CLIMBS TO NEAR 1500 J/KG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED AT LEAST FROM
THE SURFACE. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FORCING
INTO A QUESTION. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT TALL THIN
CAPE PROFILES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 CREATE GREAT
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS... PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE THE 95 PERCENTILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY...FIELD APPEARS TO BE
SET...HOWEVER...ONE THING MISSING APPEARS TO BE A TRIGGER ACROSS
THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT
AT THIS POINT AM BEGINNING TO QUESTION POPS AND HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SLIGHTLY.

SIMILAR SET UP SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MORE SHALLOW AND WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX OUT STRATUS WITH DAY
TIME HEATING. WITH WARM FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AT
LEAST FROM THE SURFACE. MODELS REALLY TRY TO ERODE THE CAP BY LATE
IN THE DAY AS WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER ELEVATED INVERSION WILL ERODE THAT QUICKLY. STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY STORMS THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO
TRAIN IN THE SAME AREA. SHEAR PROFILES DON/T SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER....BUT MAY BE ABLE TO GET AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BASED ON
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH DIRTY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE TRAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN THE MID WEEK...AND THEREFORE...KEPT MEDIUM RANGE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR THROUGH 24/12Z. 24/12Z-18Z AREAS OF CEILINGS 2-3K FEET AND
VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST IN THE
AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. THESE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA
24/18Z-25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CEILINGS
2-3K FEET MAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD. EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AREAS OF
CEILINGS 2-3K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AFTER 24/15Z. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 25/03Z
BUT CEILINGS 2-3K FEET MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 24/12Z. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 24/15Z. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER 25/00Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...