Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 290804
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 12Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/CENTRAL NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI. INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CO WILL
TRANSITION TO A DYNAMIC COOLING/DEVELOPING DEFORMATION PLUME... AS
MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTS FROM NWRN NM TO SERN CO AND DRIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY UNANIMOUS
IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO ROCKIES AND SPREAD DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN THE GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT WITH PTYPE. THE ECMWF/NAM DUO REMAIN MUCH COLDER WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS THAN THE GFS/SREF MEAN... WPC WENT WITH A
LARGE COMPROMISE OF THE FOURSOME WITH AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN CO INTO WRN NE. THE SNOW ON SAT WILL BE
IN TWO AREAS... ONE WITH A TROWAL FEATURE WRAPPING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NE INTO WY AND THE OTHER
WITH THE NEXT DYNAMIC JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SRN CO INTO NRN NM. THE TRICKY SPOT HERE AGAIN
CONTINUES TO BE OUT OVER NE WHERE THE SAME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DISCREPANCIES EXIST. WPC FOLLOWED THE SAME MODEL
COMPROMISE FOR PTYPE ON SAT. FINALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL FILL AND SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EXPAND/FILL WHILE UPPER DYNAMICS TRANSITION DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE SAN
JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





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