Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 262012
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VALID 00Z WED APR 27 2016 - 00Z SAT APR 30 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS HELPING STEER SEVERAL
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW ACROSS WYOMING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN COLORADO
WHERE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...RAINFALL FROM THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND THERE IS A
DISTINCT CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...VERY WET
SNOW. THESE SITUATIONS OFTEN DEPEND ON STRONG LIFT TO ENHANCE
COOLING AND ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO CALIBRATE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
OVER THE COMBINED DAY 1 TO 2 PERIOD.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ALSO BECOMING A
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NEVADA/UTAH AND COLORADO WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...AT LEAST 4
INCHES OR GREATER.  BY DAY 3/THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS COLORADO INTO WYOMING. AT
PRESENT...DENVER WILL SEE RAIN LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
BUT HOW COLD IT GETS AND HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AS RAIN OR SNOW IS
STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.  WHAT IS LIKELY NOT A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS
THE RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW OR
GREATER ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN

$$





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