Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS11 KWBC 252113
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
513 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

VALID 00Z TUE APR 26 2016 - 00Z FRI APR 29 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE WESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS TRAVERSES THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SPIN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MON EVENING...REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE.
INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WASATCH OF UTAH NORTH TO THE WIND RIVER
MOUNTAINS OF WY AND EAST TO THE BIG HORN AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL.
 SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.  THROUGH EARLY THU THE BEST FORCING MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
WASATCH AND THE SAN JUANS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

...NORTHEAST...

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE NORTHEAST COULD ALLOW FOR
SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





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