Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 271824
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VALID 00Z SUN SEP 28 2014 - 00Z WED OCT 01 2014


...SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...

DYNAMIC COOLING INDUCED VIA SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HAS LOWERED THE SNOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE TO AS LOW AS 7500 FEET. THE
BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE CLOSED
LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 28/12Z...DURING WHICH TIME THE SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 7500 AND 8500 FEET. GIVEN THE QPF
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW...SMALL AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS
PLACED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN (GENERALLY ABOVE 900 FEET) IN THE
CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE FOR DAY 1.


...ROCKIES...

THE CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL OPEN UP INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING DAYS 2
AND 3. DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW
SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 8500 AND 9500 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE IN UT AND THE ROCKIES IN CENTRAL CO ON DAY
2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WERE PLACED IN THESE
LOCATIONS. LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN NORTH CENTRAL CO AND THE GRAND TETONS IN WESTERN WY ON
DAY 3 SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE
8500 FEET.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


HAYES

$$




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