Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS11 KWBC 222040
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
439 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 23 2016 - 00Z MON SEP 26 2016

DAYS 1-3...

NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE ONE SURFACE LOW FORM AND MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH UT INTO WY...WITH THE SECONDARY LOW FORMING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. OVERALL WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE. THUS
WOULD ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BECOMING HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS GET...AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OVERLAP THERE IS WITH THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND QPF. FOR THE
MOST PART THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW ABOVE
8500 TO 9000 FEET...FOCUSING FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
UT...THEN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

ACROSS UTAH THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 4"+ OF SNOW...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 8" APPEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WASATCH RANGE. ACROSS WY/MT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
MAINLY IN THE ABSAROKA RANGE...WIND RIVER RANGE...GRAND
TETONS...WYOMING RANGE...OWL CREEK AND THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. ALL
OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 4"+ ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8" OR MORE APPEARS TO BE
FROM OWL CREEK NORTH INTO THE ABSAROKA RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME QPF DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND THUS ALSO SNOW UNCERTAINTY. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE ABSAROKA RANGE IN SOUTHERN
MT AND THE BIG HORNS...AS WEST TO EAST SHIFTS IN THE QPF AXIS WILL
HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THESE AREAS. FOR NOW WPC FOLLOWED A
GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

ACROSS COLORADO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...GENERALLY
ABOVE 9500 FEET...WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF 4"+. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE PARK RANGE MAY
ALSO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

CHENARD



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