Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 132237
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

VALID 00Z SAT JAN 14 2017 - 00Z TUE JAN 17 2017


...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO
VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
EXPECTED TO SEE DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY HIGH-IMPACT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT.  SNOW WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT...MAINLY FOCUSING IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE CAROLINAS...WHERE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SET UP OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION.  WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN .25" ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN AN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT IS
ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 0.25" ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
 PRECIPITATION...AND THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING ICE...SHOULD
INCREASE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND THE AXIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL U.S..  ALSO...CONDITIONS SHOULD COOL OFF
ENOUGH ALOFT ON MONDAY TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN INTO SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DETAILS OF HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WHICH REDUCES
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THE EXACT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND SUNDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO THE WPC
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION/PMDHMD FOR MORE DETAILS ON MODEL
SPREAD AND WPC MODEL PREFERENCES.


GERHARDT

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