Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 092041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 00Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016

DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON WED.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
MODELS -- WHICH OVERALL TRENDED WETTER.  WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 4-INCHES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A NARROW
STRIPE OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN AND CENTRAL IA ON
WED.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW..STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LAKES EFFECT SNOWS.  FROM LATE TUE INTO WED...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AND WESTERN LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI.  MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
PA...WESTERN NY AND THE TUG HILL REGION INTO THU.  BY THU
EVENING...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THE MEAN FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH HUDSON BAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$




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