Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 240919
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
518 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

VALID 12Z SUN APR 24 2016 - 12Z WED APR 27 2016


DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...

LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ALONG THE BIG HORN AND
ABSAROKA RANGES AS AN UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WYOMING AND WINDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CARRY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN EARLY SUNDAY.  SUNDAY
NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT UPSTREAM TO AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EVENTUAL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  LOWERING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WITH THE APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
 SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE COLORADO/WYOMING
ROCKIES WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CLOSED LOW DEPARTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND UPSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....SPREAD AND FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE EXACT LOCATION/AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS
WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...RESULTED IN A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THE WPC
DAY 1-3 FORECAST.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT DAYS
1-3.


GERHARDT

$$





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