Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 222057
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

VALID 00Z MON MAR 23 2015 - 00Z THU MAR 26 2015

DAYS 1-3...

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY LATE SUN-MON...

PRECIPITATION NOW DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN N
AMERICA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS-UPPER MIDWEST SUN NIGHT-MON.  AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS..ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE..IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN A NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW..WITH SOME 4+ INCH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL MN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MN..NORTHEASTERN IA..SOUTHWESTERN WI INTO NORTHERN
IL.  INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA/IL.

...RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT-TUE...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE BY EARLY MON.  ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES..BLUES INTO
THE CENTRAL ID RANGES LATE SUN INTO MON...BEFORE REACHING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT AND NORTHWESTERN WY.  THIS
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...TO PERHAPS A
FOOT OR MORE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND CENTRAL
ID...WESTERN MT AND NORTHWESTERN WY RANGES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON TUE-WED...

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUE.
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET ALONG WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE
NORTHWEST OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT/NORTHWESTERN ND ON TUE.  ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN CORNERS OF THOSE STATES.  HOWEVER FURTHER EAST...A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TUE NIGHT
INTO WED.  A VIGOROUS VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS-LOWER MO
VALLEY...ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF
A MID-LEVEL CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED MORNING.  EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI.    FURTHER TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WI AND NORTHERN MI.  BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME QUARTER-INCH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF REGION.

PEREIRA

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