Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 051933
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 06 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 09 2015

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

THE MODELS SHOW A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB WAVE FORMING UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY... GREAT
LAKES AND THEN NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH WAVE WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WITH EACH INTERVAL OF SNOW.
THE MODELS DO HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
EACH WAVE...WITH NO PREFERRED SOLUTION LEADING TO EQUAL WEIGHTING
AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE FORECASTS SNOW
AMOUNTS/PROBABILITIES.  LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LAKES AND TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.


...MID ATLANTIC COAST DAY 1.....

A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCH OF TWO
IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT AND 700 MB TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.
COLD AIR CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE NC COAST AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND WEAK ASCENT OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY AND DRYING ALOFT ENDS PRECIP. MEASURABLE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WHILE TEMPS REACH THE LOWER 30S. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAINS BELOW 0.10 INCHES.

THE PROBABILITY OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER OF ICING IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT DAYS 1-3.


PETERSEN







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