Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS11 KWBC 252056
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 26 2017 - 00Z WED MAR 01 2017

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...WEST...

ANOTHER RATHER UNSETTLED THREE DAYS COMING UP FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED
FOR THE TERRAIN. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WEST AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE PROCESS.

ON SUN... A SHORT WAVE... CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN/CENTRAL CA
WEST COAST... WILL SWEEP THROUGH CA/NV INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED NEAR THE CENTRAL
TO SRN CA COASTLINE. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SRN CA MTNS
INTO PARTS OF THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS. ALSO ON
SUN... A STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE AK PANHANDLE WILL
DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST INTO THE PAC NW. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD
ALLOW HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/NRN CA MTNS INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES/BITTERROOTS AND SAWTOOTH/BLUE MTNS. THEN ON MON...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
TERRAIN. THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO THE NW WILL PROCEED
DOWNSTREAM AND SHEAR OUT BUT HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE REACHES SRN CA AND POSSIBLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WASATCH. FINALLY ON TUES... THE ENTIRE
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND A SLIGHT NEG
TILT NEAR THE BASE OR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHOULD MEAN
IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SRN WASATCH/MOGOLLON RIM INTO
THE CO ROCKIES. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MASS FIELDS AND QPF EACH DAY THAT WPC REALLY FAVORED A GLOBAL
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING INTO THE PAC NW ON SUN WILL
SHEAR-OUT THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MON AND EVENTUALLY
SOME VORTICITY WILL POTENTIALLY STREAK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUES. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THIS SMALL SCALE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH A STREAK OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM CENTRAL/NERN MN
INTO NRN WI AND WESTERN UP OF MI. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THIS
GLOBAL MODEL DUO FOR MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


MUSHER



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