Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 280754
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 12Z THU APR 28 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE SWRN
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
INITIALLY BROAD SWRLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED MID
TO UPPER LOW ON THURS WILL TEAM WITH INCREASING ERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR HEAVY SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE WASATCH INTO THE CO
ROCKIES. THEN ON FRI... THE MID TO UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS NM/CO INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AN
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD OF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD YIELD
CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
POSSIBLY SPREAD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS
WHERE THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME ON PTYPE AS THE ECMWF/NAM ARE
COOLER THAN THE GFS/SREF MEAN ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. THE MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT DOWNSTREAM ON SAT ACROSS KS/NE WITH A
TROWAL PERSISTING BACK INTO WY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE
DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAVORED WY TERRAIN INTO WRN NE... BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS REMAINING A MAJOR ISSUE OVER CENTRAL NE AND YET MORE
SNOW FOR THE SRN CO ROCKIES INTO NRN NM.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





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