Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 181937
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 00Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 22 2014

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH THE PAC NW ON SAT WILL HELP
LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS AND ALLOW THE SEMI-PERSISTENT MODEST ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES.
THE MOST OPPORTUNE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND WPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR LOW TO MDT PROBS
OF 4 INCHES.

...NERN MN...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH A DYNAMIC UPPER JET STREAK WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF MIXED FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS
NRN/NERN MN. MODEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING CONDITIONS SUFFICIENT FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN... AS A SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRECIP OVERRUNS INTO THE REGION. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE FOR A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND .25 INCH
ICING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
HRS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON
DAYS 2 AND 3.

MUSHER

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