Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 052106
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...NC/SC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

A DYNAMIC UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR TEXARKANA WILL EVENTUALLY ROLL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF A MID TO UPPER LOW...
WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
ANTICIPATED CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BURST OF PRECIP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM ERN
SC AND SERN NC. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CONVERT THIS MOISTURE
FROM RAIN OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SNOW. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
AND TH GFS/ECMWF BEING A SLIGHTLY CLOSER PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WPC
INTRODUCED POSSIBLE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH FROM
FAY TO FLO TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CHS.

THEN ON MON WITH THE STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC... THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAMMOTH
PRECIP SHIELD COULD POTENTIALLY CLIP SERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY
SNOW. THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREA FOR POSSIBLE DEFORMATION
ZONE/BANDING SNOWS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM ERN LONG ISLAND TO
ERN/SERN MA. THIS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES GFS AND
ECMWF.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO UPPER MIDWEST TO OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...

A POTENT PAC SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE PAC NW LATE TODAY AND
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SAT. REASONABLE PAC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND
BITTERROOTS.

THIS PAC SYSTEM WILL THEN TEAM WITH THE NRN STREAM TO TRACK ALONG
OR NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. INITIALLY
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A BAND OF
HEAVY OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF
HEAVY SNOW. ADD IN INCREASINGLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER
WINDS COULD POSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS SET
FROM NERN ND THROUGH NRN MN.

THE ENTIRE AMPLIFYING SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST ON MON WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION DROPPING INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY...
WHILE A DYNAMIC UPPER JET CARVES THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE MID-ATL
REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MAINLY MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT TO MDT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS

FOR THE MOST PART... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A HI-RES ECMWF AND
GFS BLEND THROUGHOUT THE FCST.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


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