Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS11 KWBC 230907
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
506 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

VALID 12Z SAT APR 23 2016 - 12Z TUE APR 26 2016


DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

LATE SEASON SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TWO CONSECUTIVE CLOSED LOWS PROGRESS INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S..
 SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
RANGES OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHILE THE
INITIAL UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL-FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  BY LATE
SUNDAY...ATTENTION SHOULD SHIFT UPSTREAM TO AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EVENTUAL SECOND LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  LOWERING TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA ON MONDAY...AND A POTENTIAL SECOND
ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
EVOLUTION OF FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S....BUT THE WPC FORECAST
STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
OF THE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SECOND LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


GERHARDT

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