Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FOUS11 KWBC 072105
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 11 2016

NEW ENGLAND...

LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AUTOMATED
PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGES TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE MORE PREFERRED SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE THAT IS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF
ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLES...
WITH MOST OF THE SREF MEMBERS CONSIDERED TOO FAR WEST AND
THEREFORE HEAVY WITH THEIR SNOW TOO FAR INLAND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GREAT LAKES...

MODELS MORE SO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDE THE
NAM AND SREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SNOW EVENT EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW TOO
MUCH WEAKENING IN ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS PERHAPS DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THUS...THE DETERMINISTIC SNOW TOTALS AND RESULTING PROBABILITIES
WERE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. APPRECIATION GOES
OUT TO THE GRAND RAPIDS WFO FOR PROVIDING FURTHER INSIGHT INTO THE
EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...

A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL STRONGLY PREFERRED FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS APPROACH
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS LIKELY TOO COLD BELOW 700 MB. THE RESULTING
PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED
AND INITIALLY WEIGHTED ABOUT 50 PERCENT TOWARD THE SREF MEMBERS
WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS AND ANTICIPATED WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR THE AXIS TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW JERSEY WITHIN A TROWEL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

JAMES


$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.