Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 160842
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
441 AM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 16 2017 - 12Z SUN MAR 19 2017

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THU MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING.  LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MN...THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI AND NORTHERN WI.  WPC
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-INCHES OR MORE ACROSS THIS AREA BY 12 UTC FRI.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI AND MUCH
OF WI.

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EAST ON FRI...THE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS
EXPECTED PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR
AMOUNTS OF 4-INCHES OR MORE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. ON
DAY 2 (ENDING 12 UTC SAT).

SAT MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI MORNING MAY THROW
ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO HELP SUPPORT SOME
STEADIER SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-INCHES OR MORE ON DAY 3 (ENDING 12 UTC SUN).

THE PROBABILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 INCH OR MORE IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRI.  STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE BUILDING RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH ANY HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT AS THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 INCH OR MORE IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





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