Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAY 1...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST...

A FAST MOVING INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THAT HAS TRENDED WESTWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND. SOME MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE THE STORM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE AREAS EXPECTING SNOW HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
AND WEST...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW NOW EXPECTED FROM LONG
ISLAND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN A MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND DOWNEAST MAINE WITH EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
FOOT OF SNOW.   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN NEW YORK CITY BY
AFTERNOON AFTER A CHANGEOVER THIS MORNING WHILE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
TAPER OFF IN BOSTON BY EVENING AFTER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY.


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 2 BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BUT SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...

A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN ON MONDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES/INCREASING WINDS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.  MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL STAY NORTH OF THE US BORDER ON DAY 2...WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FOUR
INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





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