Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 212033
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

VALID 00Z THU SEP 22 2016 - 00Z SUN SEP 25 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN U.S..  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE ALONG THE WASATCH
RANGES AND UINTA MOUNTAINS OF UTAH...WHERE LOWERING TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.  ONCE
THE CORE OF THE ENERGY WITHIN THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTH WESTERN MONTANA...WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...ABSAROKA RANGE...AND TETONS.
ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR INFORMATION ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


GERHARDT



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