Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FOUS11 KWBC 032031
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

VALID 00Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 07 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW IS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE NW AND WILL PROCEED DOWNSTREAM ON THURS
INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE CASCADES TO THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
ON FRI RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT SNOW FROM WY/CO OUT INTO PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE THESE TWO STREAMS TRACK SOUTH AND EAST ON
SAT... A THIRD STREAM OF ARCTIC VARIETY WILL COME INTO PICTURE AS
IT DIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
SPELL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE UP OF MI.

BY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT... A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT
THE NW AND NRN ROCKIES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
THE CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BITTERROOTS.

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MID-ATL...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND PRESSING
INTO THE EAST TODAY WILL REMAIN PREVALENT INTO LATE THURS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM UPPER DYNAMICS NEAR CO/NM AT THIS
TIME WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE... A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE ALONG THE NRN STREAM WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TWO STREAMS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PHASE... TAKE A NEG TILT WITH BACKING FLOW... INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF NC AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A
BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OR EDGE OF
THE ANTICIPATED STREAM OF QPF. NOW THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ON THE EXACT MASS FIELD SETUP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES. WPC WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED A STRIPE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM NERN NC/SERN VA
THROUGH SRN DE/SERN MD AND SERN NJ TO THE ERN PORTION OF LONG
ISLAND AND SERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS THE LATTER SPOT NEAR SERN MA/CAPE
COD WHERE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS COULD DOUBLE BEFORE THE PHASED
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE ERN SEABOARD.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.