Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 170658
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ONE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESULTING IN LOW PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON INTO THE SAWTOOTH
MOUNTAINS IN THE BITTERROOTS RANGE.  MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD WITH
A 4-WAY BLEND INVOLVING THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEAN USED TO
DEVELOP THE INTERNAL WWD ACCUMULATIONS TO ADDRESS ANY LINGERING
SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES.

THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...

SNOW WILL END QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/NW. MINNESOTA/UP OF MICHIGAN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO CANADA BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES
OF SNOW.  00Z GUIDANCE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM REASONABLY
WELL...WITH A MULTI-MODEL BLEND INVOLVING THE LATEST
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEAN USED TO DERIVE THE INTERNAL WWD AMOUNTS TO
ADDRESS ANY LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SYSTEM DETAILS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

JAMES


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