Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 270905
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 27 2016 - 12Z WED NOV 30 2016

DAY 1 TO 3...

...WESTERN U.S...

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PERSIST
FOR TWO MORE DAYS FOR MORE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
TERRAIN. STARTING ON SUN... ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE
PAC NW DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OR THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... FINALLY A POTENT SHORT WAVE/UPPER JET OVER THE
NERN PAC WILL SLIDE INTO THE PAC NW LATE SUN INTO MON. EXPECT VERY
HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE CASCADES... SIERRA AND CO ROCKIES WITH MORE
MODEST AMOUNTS FOR THE TERRAIN OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT BASIN. THE LATTER OF THE THREE IMPULSES ON SUN WILL STILL BE
AROUND ON MON... THE DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL DEPART THE NW TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE SHARP SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. SNOW ON MON WILL SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES TO THE
WASATCH AND CO/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN/MON AND LINGERING INTO TUES. A DYNAMIC
SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
BEGINNING TO DEPART THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECT OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE ALOFT WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW NEAR
CENTRAL NE SUN EVENING BEFORE DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME WRAPPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION FOR SNOW
DEVELOPING SUN EVENING FROM CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL
BE A RESULTANT OF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WITHIN A DEVELOPING
AND EXPANDING DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WILL
ENHANCE ON MON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SUB 980MB LOW
PRESSURE STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW
WITH CONDITIONS JUST SHY OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA TO INUNDATE WRN ND
SPREADING INTO ERN MT AND MUCH OF SD. FINALLY ON TUES... THE UPPER
VORTEX AND STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
MN... BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FILL AND THE TROWAL TO LOSE INTENSITY AND
FOCUS FOR JUST LINGERING SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. OVERALL WPC REALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ON MOST FACETS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW PROBS.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP STEER A DYNAMIC SHORT
WAVE... CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW... TOWARD THE NERN QUAD OF THE
COUNTRY ON TUES. A WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO
THE REGION... WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES INTO THE
REGION AND UNDERCUTS THE MOIST 850MB SWRLY FLOW. EXPECT A VARIETY
OF PRECIP TYPES FROM SOME ICING FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND UP INTO
NRN NH AND SNOW FROM MT WASHINGTON NORTH INTO MUCH OF MAINE MINUS
THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A FEW DAYS OUT... THE GUIDANCE OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A DECENT HANDLING OF THIS MINOR TO MODERATE
EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

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