Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 282028
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 00Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 00Z MON MAY 02 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/CENTRAL NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A LATE SEASON WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PAINS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A BROAD
REGION OF ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION...BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...AND RESPECTABLE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS COLORADO WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A NICE TROWAL FEATURE WRAPPING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGING SNOWFALL TO THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SNOWFALL AGAIN OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

MODEL QPF TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER IN GENERAL. FOR DAY
2...SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOWED A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 IN COLORADO. TO THE NORTH OF
I-70 THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AS YOU MOVE
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE BIGGEST SPREAD WAS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON DAY 2 WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC FORECAST LEANED HEAVILY ON THE
GEFS AND SREF MEANS WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KREKELER

$$




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