Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS11 KWBC 280852
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

VALID 12Z MON NOV 28 2016 - 12Z THU DEC 01 2016

DAY 1 TO 3...

...WESTERN U.S...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SHARP SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC PAC TROUGH ARRIVES INTO THE
REGION. A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
CURRENTLY... THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD YIELD
HEAVY OROGRAPHIC SNOW FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE... ON THE HEELS OF
THIS IMPULSE... INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SHARP SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT TERM
AT BEST. ANOTHER UNIFORM PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL ROLL INTO THE NW
LATE TUES AND HELP ESTABLISH ANOTHER NEG ANOMALY OVER THE REGION
FOR WED. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NW INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES... AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE STAGE IS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
MON AND LINGERING INTO TUES/WED. A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE... FROM THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST... EJECTED OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAS INDUCED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR
EASTERN SD. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CIRCULATION OR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CONTINUED STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WITHIN THE DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ON MON... AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO SUB 980MB. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND...
WHERE UP TO A FOOT IS POSSIBLE. THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN STALL... BECOME STATIONARY AND DRIFT DOWNSTREAM ON TUES
AND WED. THE TROWAL WILL LOSE INTENSITY TO PRODUCE LINGERING SNOW
AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN/WI.
OVERALL WPC REALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ON
MOST FACETS OF THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING THE HEAVY SNOW PROBS.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL HELP STEER A COUPLE OF DYNAMIC SHORT WAVES... ONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER OVER THE PAC
NW... TOWARD THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY ON TUES AND WED. A WAVE
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION WITH EACH
SYSTEM... WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES INTO THE
REGION AND UNDERCUTS THE MOIST 850MB SWRLY FLOW. EXPECT A VARIETY
OF PRECIP TYPES FROM SOME ICING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SNOW
FOR NRN MAINE. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A DECENT HANDLING ON THE
PARTICULARS FOR THIS MINOR TO MODERATE EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

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