Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
018
FOUS11 KWBC 312318
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
617 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 01 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 04 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS WEEK.

A BROAD TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...MOGOLLON RIM...AND EVEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  STRONG LIFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET...COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE LEADING ENERGY WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD
MONDAY EVENING...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING TO THE NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BRING
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.  BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WHILE IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  ALSO...AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...A WARM LAYER NOSING IN ALOFT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SLEET OR FREEZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVY SNOW.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...BUT SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HINTS AT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
ACCUMULATIONS GRADIENT.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES PROGRESS THROUGH ALOFT.  MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO CONTINUITY SINCE THE LATEST MODELS RUNS WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GERHARDT


$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.