Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 141959
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 15 2017 - 00Z WED JAN 18 2017

DAYS 1 TO 3...

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A MAJOR ICING EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
MONDAY.  FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN...AND SOME LIGHT
ICING WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND LARGE SCALE AND ULTIMATELY WEAKENING REGION OF
UPPER CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO SOME VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR RESIDING OVER
THE  MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

ON DAY 1/SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO/THE SACRAMENTO RANGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT
ZR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .25 INCHES ARE FORECAST FRO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE STATE OF
KANSAS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THERE IS A 50 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN .5 INCHES
OF ICE ESPECIALLY FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. CRIPPLING ICE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

BY DAY 2/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE ICING THREAT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING .25
INCHES FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
IOWA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE OR 50 TO 75
PERCENT CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES.  LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY MONDAY EVENING.

ON DAY 3/MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MICHIGAN BUT ONLY A NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW
WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 4
INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT A WIDE AREA OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...ONLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING .25 INCHES WHILE ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL AND PUBLIC SAFETY.

DAY 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ANOTHER LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS GOING TO TAKE AIM AT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
RECENT SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA.  SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW ONLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
ICING IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON AS
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AS WARMING COMES IN ALOFT.

KOCIN

$$




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