Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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771
FOUS11 KWBC 300749
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 12Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 03 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES/WEST CENTRAL NE...

THE LATE SEASON SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HRS BEFORE THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS TO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS TERRAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TIGHTLY COMPACTED MID TO UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NWRN
KS/NERN CO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ON SAT WHILE BEGINNING TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. THE IMPRESSIVE RADAR REFLECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NE AND SPREADING UPSTREAM INTO WY/CO WITH
TREMENDOUS DYNAMIC COOLING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE WITH DECREASING INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW AND
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS SERN WY TERRAIN
BACK TO THE WIND RIVER AND ABSAROKA RANGES WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOCAL MAX NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SWRN SD. MEANWHILE... GUIDANCE
IS IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE AND AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH COOLING OF THE
ENTIRE THERMAL COLUMN FOR STILL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEST
CENTRAL NE FROM AIA TO TIF.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM... ANOTHER DYNAMIC JET STREAK WILL DIG
AND BOTTOM-OUT OVER THE DESERT SW/FOUR CORNERS REGION. FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
FOR THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY MON... THE SYSTEM WILL FILL WHILE UPPER DYNAMICS SHEAR
DOWNSTREAM AND EXPECT LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





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