Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 100745
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2016

DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY STILL BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL MOSTLY LEAVE LIGHT AMOUNTS LESS THAN 4
INCHES.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER
DIGGING TROUGH THAT WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THROUGH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING ON FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT
WITH THE MOSTLY UNFROZEN LAKES WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH WIND SHIFTS
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST LIKELY BANDS SET UP. THERE MAY
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK...OR AT LEAST A SHIFT IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE
BANDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR DAY 3 IS CONSERVATIVE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY BE MUCH HIGHER WITH DOWNWIND SNOWFALL ALSO
LIKELY ACROSS THE UPWIND SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ...SEVERAL NARROW STRIPES OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER NORTH DAKOTA
ON THURSDAY.

DAY 3...

...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE
AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH A LACK OF PHASING EVIDENT IN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS...THIS
SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY...WHEN A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.  FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN

$$




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