Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 200837
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

VALID 12Z MON MAR 20 2017 - 12Z THU MAR 23 2017


...NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO A LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN MT RANGES
MON INTO EARLY TUE.  WHILE WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD (ENDING 12 UTC TUE)...THE PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...HAMPERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

...SIERRA/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. ON TUE.  DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE
TERRAIN ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOURAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SIERRA.  SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AT THE ONSET...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT
OR MORE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000 FT.
BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...THE GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST.  A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA WED NIGHT...WITH A MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN THU MORNING.  FAVORABLE
UPPER JET FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED TO HELP SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NV RANGES AND THE
NORTHERN WASATCH AND UNITAS OF UT.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 INCH OR MORE IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





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