Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 131948
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

VALID 00Z SAT OCT 14 2017 - 00Z TUE OCT 17 2017


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...ROCKIES...
...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

THE WPC SNOW FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z
GFS...AND 00Z NAM 3KM NEST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. AS
THIS STORM IS NOT ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE HEAVY SNOW
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE WITH THE TROUGH THE PREFERRED
AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE THE WY/EASTERN ID RANGES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE NORTH END OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHERN ND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DIURNAL
EFFECTS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.


DAY 2...

...ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...

A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
BY THE TIME IS REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER ELEVATION...BANDING PRECIP...AND NOCTURNAL
EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN SATURDAY NIGHT.


DAY 3...

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


FOR DAYS 1-3...THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT.

JACKSON

$$





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