Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FOUS11 KWBC 102107
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2017

VALID 00Z MON DEC 11 2017 - 00Z THU DEC 14 2017


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING TO MID WORK WEEK WILL
BE SOLELY THE NERN SECTION OF THE NATION, FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS
PERSISTENT FOR THE MOST PART, A LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE REGIME. AN
IMPRESSIVE RIDGE REVOLVES OVER THE WEST AND A AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS
COLD TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EASE AND GIVE WAY TO A
POLAR/ARCTIC SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK
FROM ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. LIKE MOST
CLIPPER FEATURES, EXPECT STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT BUT VERY
LITTLE IN CREDIBLE MOISTURE CONTENT.
A STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TRACK OF THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE
AND NOSE OF A DYNAMIC JET STREAK FROM NORTHERN MN THROUGH WI INTO
MI AND POSSIBLY SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO LOWER MI FROM LAKE MI.
THIS MAY INCLUDE MAJOR METRO AREAS LIKE GRB AND MKE BUT LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF MSP AND CHICAGO.

THEN ON TUES, THIS SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PHASE WITH AN AGGRESSIVELY
DIGGING ARCTIC IMPULSE TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY 10MB BEFORE BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY
TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PHASING
SYSTEM SHOULD CAPITALIZE ON INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR METRO
AREAS LIKE CLE, BUF, PIT, ALY AND BTV BUT LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
CORE I95 CORRIDOR FROM BOS TO NYC.

FINALLY ON WED, THE DEEP CYCLONE WILL LIFT UP TOWARD EASTERN
QUEBEC ALLOWING THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE, THE CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW OFF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WILL
PROVIDE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE SNOW BELT AND ANOTHER SMALL
SCALE POLAR SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM WILL POSSIBLY YIELD SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.