Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 211948
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 22 2017 - 00Z MON SEP 25 2017


DAYS 1-3...

NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THROUGH THE WEST
AND PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE THREE DAYS, FRIDAY APPEARING LIKE THE DAY WITH MOST
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK IN THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CA/NV AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST TOWARD THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION TO FEATURE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH 700-850MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW FROM CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT AND
NWRN WY ON FRI. THE MID TO UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR ID/WY/MT WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SAT TO ALLOW THE MAIN FOCUS OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER WY MAY YIELD
SOME MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WIND RIVER AND ABSAROKA
RANGES. FINALLY ON SUN, A 500MB CIRCULATION WILL LIFT FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PERHAPS PRODUCE MTN SNOW FROM
THE WASATCH OF UT INTO WESTERN WY. OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED WPC QPF
WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PTYPE.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$




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