Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 162043
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 17 2017 - 00Z MON FEB 20 2017

DAYS 1 TO 3...

NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS GOING TO BRING HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  ALONG THE SIERRA...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET WHILE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SNOW LEVELS LOOK
HEADED AS LOW AS 6000 FEET OR SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT IN BOTH
LOCATIONS...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.  THE
HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY...WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SIERRA AS WELL AS THE HIGH PEAKS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET ACROSS NEVADA WHERE
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MANY PEAKS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ON DAY 1/FRIDAY..THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ALONG THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 TO
7000 FEET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 4 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS A
FEW MOUNTAINS OF THE INTERIOR OF NEVADA/THE CASCADES AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO INTO NORTHWESTERN MONTANA.

ON DAY 2/SATURDAY...AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION CROSSES MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THERE IS AGAIN A MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH TWO DAY TOTALS OF SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL.  A LARGER AREA
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW COVERS THE WEST ON DAY 2...INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON/CENTRAL IDAHO/WESTERN WYOMING/UTAH AND NEVADA.
THESE ARE AREAS AT LEAST MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 4 TO 8
INCHES.

ON DAY 3/SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST WHILE THE
NEXT TROUGH IMPACTS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC COAST
WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE CASCADES AND MANY OF THE SAME
RANGES THE DAY BEFORE BUT WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND NEVADA.  HEAVY SNOW IS AT LEAST
A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA/CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SAN JUANS IN COLORADO. SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO
INTO NORTHWESTERN MONTANA/SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...WHERE 6 TO 12
INCH AMOUNT COULD BE COMMON.

THE PROBABILITY OF 0.25 INCHES OF ICE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN

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