Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
728 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

The forecast is looking good so far this evening. Still expecting
calm winds, mostly clear skies, and areas of valley fog overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

An upper level high pressure system across the Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley will keep above normal warmth in place through the
weekend. An accompanying surface ridge and subsequent deep layer
subsidence will keep the vast majority of eastern Kentucky dry, with
the possible exception being a locale or two across far southeastern
Kentucky. Areas on an eastward facing mountain slope will stand the
best chance for a shower where orographic forcing will be
enhanced as east/northeast winds prevail. A popup shower may also
develop closer to the southern extent of the Lake Cumberland
region on the northern periphery of some remnant energy from a low
sitting in the Gulf of Mexico. Not expecting a great deal of
rainfall from any showers that can develop locally, nor any
lightning as convection will not be deep enough to generate
electrical activity.

Cloud cover, mainly confined south of Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway
80 nearer to what lift is present, will dissipate this evening
leading to clear skies overnight. This will once again promote
radiation fog in river valleys as winds remain light and dewpoints
reside in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Valley temperatures look to
cool into the upper 50s to near 60 with ridges remaining in the
low 60s.

A fairly similar pattern will materialize for Sunday with deep
layer subsidence overhead. Will keep rain chances out of the
forecast for now as the upper high nudges slightly south and east
into the Appalachians, resulting in a minor uptick in upper height
fields and similar afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

The period begins with upper level high remaining in control of
the eastern half of the CONUS along with general surface high
pressure. The initial upper level high will be replaced by a
southwest building ridge. This ridge is poised to breakdown, as an
upper level trough swings into the upper Midwest by Friday. This
will lead to lowering heights by the end of the week into the
weekend, and much cooler temperatures with 850mb temperatures
getting into the single digits. Overall models are in decent
agreement with the pattern, however, some differences toward the
end of next week could lead to differences in temperatures. Also
some disagreement in how the front will play out on Wednesday into
Thursday, but think the chances of showers remains low given the
displacement from surface low and lack of cyclonic flow aloft.

Sensible weather wise we are looking warm weather through
Wednesday. A weak cold front will progress east by Wednesday night
into Thursday, and perhaps some showers in the far SE Thursday
afternoon. Most could be dry for quite sometime if the trends
continue. Then the near to below normal temperatures will spread
into the Ohio Valley to round of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with high pressure in
control. Will see some river valley fog develop tonight into
Sunday morning, but this should largely avoid all sites. Kept
mention of MVFR ceilings at SJS late tonight through early Sunday
morning given presently greater moisture. Winds will generally
remain east to northeast near 5 knots or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR



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