Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 261200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE
FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY STRETCHED
BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PLEASANT AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WHERE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS SET UP. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTED
TO GET MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS NIGHT...HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY A PESKY LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET PARKED
OVER MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLOUD PATCH IS SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A
BLANKETING EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
CWA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS DISRUPTION MAY ALSO HINDER THE
FORMATION OF FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT SOME ALONG THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...LOCALLY DENSE FOR A
BRIEF TIME. AS IT STANDS...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 60S ON
THE RIDGES TO A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW HINTS OF FOG
STARTING TO FORM IN THE OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. LOW HEIGHTS...WEAK RIPPLES...AND BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE BY TODAY...
THOUGH...WITH SOME OF ITS CORE ENERGY BRUSHING PAST JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.

EAST KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT TASTE OF
THE BEST FALL WEATHER HAS TO OFFER. PLEASANT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 70S ARE AGAIN ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ONLY DRAW BACK MAY BE THE PREVALENCE OF MID RANGE CLOUDS
SLIPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA FROM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL ONE WITH LESS CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE/S DESCENT. AS SUCH...RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN
THURSDAY.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS.
AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
TRAVERSES THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND MOVES
NWD...GETTING INGESTED INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ULTIMATELY STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AND
DRY DAY BEFORE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT THEN
GRADUALLY WARM AND RETURN BACK TO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOUGH ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EVEN ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SATURATED BUT THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR MOST
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE BEST SHOT BEING KSME. FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.