Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252047
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

An upper level low pressure system continues to shift NE of Kentucky
this afternoon, pulling with it the surface low which is currently
located over north-central Ohio. Moisture from this system has
impacted much of eastern KY today with widespread stratiform rain.
However, as the system continues to shift NE of the region, this
rain will continue to move east and taper off throughout the
afternoon/evening. With no instability to work with, continued with
no thunder in the forecast during this time.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will work in overnight
tonight, but llvl moisture may linger a bit in the form of low
clouds, eventually breaking up by daybreak Friday in many locations.
A warm front moving in to our north will likely keep cloud cover
in place across the NE CWA. According to the latest soundings,
this llvl cloud cover should be enough to prevent fog in most
locations, though can`t rule out some isolated valley occurrences.

During the day Friday, another surface low pressure system will be
located over the Southern Plains tracking NE into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. This will send a warm front eastward into
Kentucky during the day Friday into Friday night, with the return of
southerly winds pulling moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will shoot up to near 80 by Friday afternoon, compared
to our 60 degrees today. Precipitation will also start moving in
along the Ohio River Friday night, before spreading into our region
during the day Friday. This could bring some pops into our northern
CWA to round out the short term portion of the forecast. However,
after looking at the latest NAM12 forecast soundings, all moisture
should be confined to a fairly shallow layer in the llvls, with a
very strong inversion located just above followed by dry air aloft.
In such a setting, there is nothing to support convection, so kept
with only rain mention in the grids during the overnight. Southerly
flow will also help keep overnight temps from bottoming out Friday
night/Saturday morning, only falling to the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 447 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

The long wave pattern reveals amplifying flow once again into
next week. An upper level low will deepen across south central
Canada, with troughing taking shape across the Mississippi Valley
into early next week. A baroclinic zone will be laid out initially
along the Ohio Valley, with several short wave troughs traversing
the flow. This will bring continued storminess to eastern
Kentucky, with the possibility of severe weather as well as flash
flooding, given the already wet conditions in place. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

Cyclonic flow will linger into next week across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, as the Canadian upper level low
gradually spirals its way east. The baroclinic zone will drop
south, yielding some return of drier weather; however, a few POPs
may linger during peak heating in places between Tuesday and
Thursday, with the surface boundary still in the vicinity of the
area.

For temperatures, slightly above normal readings will build back
into the region for this weekend as highs return to around the 80
degree mark. Humidity levels will also be on the rise. Once the
front exits to the south on Monday, generally near to slightly
below normal readings can be expected through the rest of the
period, with lower humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

As an area of low pressure rotates just to our north, rain
continues across all TAF sites this afternoon. Expect this rain to
eventually come to an end first in the SW (SME and KLOZ) just
before 0Z, and then to the other TAF sites in the few hours
following. CIGS and VIS will remain borderline IFR to MVFR up
until this point. After rain clears out, CIGS will increase a
bit, though may still remain MVFR throughout the night. Latest
forecast soundings are not supporting much in the way of fog with
the thick clouds in place. Skies will slowly start to break up
into the day tomorrow, with generally SCT MVFR to low end VFR
cigs. Winds will be gusty today near the center of the low,
generally from the SW. Winds will lesson to generally less than 10
knots overnight, and then to less than 7 knots by during the day
Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW


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