Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220555
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING
WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST
TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.