Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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014
FXUS63 KJKL 100916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARMUP TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. A
SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER CANADA AND TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLAY FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER
PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN
GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20
KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BY 18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR



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