Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
633 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Forecast on track this morning. Numerous rain showers still
expected to affect eastern Kentucky through out the day today.
These will begin to taper off overnight and Tuesday, until the
last of the rain is finally gone by early Tuesday afternoon. The
latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

The general model consensus is calling for an unusually deep area
of low pressure to continue moving eastward across the Tennessee
valley tonight, and eventually across the Carolinas and then
offshore Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As the low
rotates across the TN valley tonight and during the day Monday,
we can expect to see numerous light to moderate rain showers
moving across the area. The rain will taper off very slowly today
and tonight, and should be exiting eastern Kentucky by late
Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts across far southeastern Kentucky
could still lead to significant rises on creeks and streams, and
perhaps isolated instances of minor flooding through late Monday
morning.

Temperatures will be significantly cooler than what we saw over
the weekend, but will still be above normal for the time of year
today and tomorrow. Highs today and Tuesday are expected to max
out in the lower 50s both days. Tonights lows should only fall to
around 40, with ongoing precipitation and extensive cloud cover
acting to moderate things a bit in that regard.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

An amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS through the
end of the week. An upper level low will be moving from the
central Plains into the Great Lakes through the middle of the
week, eventually establishing broader troughing east of the
Rockies as it merges into troughing already established across
southeastern Canada. Broad cyclonic flow will then dominate across
the eastern half of the CONUS through the end of the week, with
a much colder and drier air mass remaining in place across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Tuesday night will feature mostly clear skies initially as a short
wave ridge axis moves through aloft. This will allow for valleys
to decouple and likely dip down into the mid 30s, while ridges
stay around 10 degrees warmer. Stronger return flow will be
ongoing into Wednesday, as deep surface low pressure passes by to
our northwest and north. Gusty south to southwest winds will allow
for highs to return to around the 60 degree mark one last time. A
few sprinkles/light rain showers will be possible as the
attendant cold front moves through the region.

Several short wave troughs will then move through the area at
times through the rest of the week, bringing periodic bouts of
light precipitation. Pops have come up for Thursday, however,
temperatures will still be warm enough for a rain/snow mix and QPF
looks limited. Beyond Thursday, cold air aloft will support
mainly flurries/light snow showers at times. Moisture continues to
look limited and the progged low level flow remains more
westerly, less than ideal for upslope enhancement. Highs from
Friday through Sunday will average in the 30s, with lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

The airports across eastern Kentucky will experience widespread
light to moderate rain showers through 22 or 23Z today, before the
rain finally begins to taper off tonight. MVFR to LIFR conditions
will be possible through the end of the TAF period at all TAF
sites. The worst conditions are expected to occur through 18Z
today, with low CIGS being the primary issue. Northeast winds will
back to northwesterly through the night and into Monday with
speeds increasing to 10-12 knots, while also becoming gusty at
times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR


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