Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 250808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS






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