Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 191739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF
DENSE FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 1130Z ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SOME
SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING
AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST TO RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN
TWO STATIONARY BOUNDARIES WITH ONE ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND ONE
ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COVER WITH ENOUGH REMNANT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP
UP IN THESE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MAINLY ALONG THESE VAGUE BUT
PRESENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. DESPITE ALL OF THIS...THE LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAS LEFT US WITH A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG HAS BEEN THE CASE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN UNTIL 14Z THIS MORNING. WILL LET THIS RIDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE.

HEADING INTO TODAY...THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS A
CONTINUED POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THOUGH WEAK...A SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM...A
QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PRESENT OVER IA
AND WI AND TAKING AIM AT THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT IN RECENT RUNS ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND JUST IN THE PAST COUPLE HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF THIS. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE TONIGHT PORTION AS TIMING WILL HAVE THE BETTER
FORCING IN THE TONIGHT PORTION. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOME CAPPING
SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DUE TO DEPARTING WEAK RIDGING THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT BUT WITH THE DAYS HEATING DWINDLING...THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS WHERE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN WEST IN CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND WITH SOME
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE WAVE THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERALL...THE SHORT
TERM LOOKS PRETTY PEDESTRIAN FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY EARLIER
ARRIVAL WITH THE WAVE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IN THERE LIES THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START
OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHARPER TROUGHING RESIDING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME...STALLING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GULF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR HEAT TO BUILD INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE AID OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE INTERFACE OF THE PASSING
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE GULF RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN LEND MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...LIMITING THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT TO JUST SOME ISOLATED BUILD UPS DURING PEAK
HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH





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