Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 151820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY
COVER AND THE T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NATION INCLUDING THE JKL CWA. THIS HAD BROUGHT
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS FOG IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD BE CLEAR BY
11 AM. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BE GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TODAY. TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH...AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY PCPN STAYING NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS WELL COVERED SO ONLY MINOR...MAINLY NEAR TERM...ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...NEW ZONES AND AN HWO WAS
ISSUED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING FOG MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED THE
DIURNAL RISE A BIT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WHERE THE FOG WILL BE SLOWER
TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST...AND TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME PLACES. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS MORE PROLIFIC
EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOW STRATOCU
CONTINUING TO PLAGUE FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLER START AND CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH JUST A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS MEAGER BY THE TIME IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOWER 70S IN
THE SOUTH. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DRY UP BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH...MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING FAR SE KY. A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND HEADS EAST OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS KY FROM THE NW WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AVIATION
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS...DOWN INTO MVFR...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. ADDED A VCSH
FOR THE SHOWERS TO ALL THE TAFS. THE EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG AND STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF






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