Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1239 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH AROUND NOON
TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN QUITE CLEARLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...MODIFIED THE
GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...QPF...SNOWFALL AMTS...AND
WEATHER TYPE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM TODAY. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER AND GRID UPDATES. WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SNOW HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA AND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THE SNOW IS HAVING IN FLOYD AND
PIKE COUNTIES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST
HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND ANY IMPACTS IT MAY
BE HAVING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN GOING
ON IN SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTY. THE SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING HARD ENOUGH IN THOSE TWO AREAS TO ACCUMULATE ON
AREA ROADWAYS. THE SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST THAT WERE MENTIONED
BEFORE ARE ADDRESSING THOSE ISSUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE JUST
MADE UPDATES FOR OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIR MASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
THE TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE
HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION
OF CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF SITES WILL BE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA. THE TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K FROM 10Z ONWARD...AND PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST...NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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