Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 172010 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MORE EFFECTIVELY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO FAR TODAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE IS MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DRIED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE CLOSED...BUT
PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A RATHER
DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND THAT NIGHT WITH
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE EAST OF
THE AREA. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BRIEF TIME OF CLEARING THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PUT A CAP ON THE COOLING...LIMITING FURTHER TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO
BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRYING TAKING PLACE ATTM. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE UNDERCUT QPF AND POPS FROM THE NAM/MET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN
THREAT WILL DAMPEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND FADE OUT BY AFTERNOON. FOR
THIS...HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN THREAT TO JUST FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A BIT
UNDER THE MET NUMBERS AND CLOSER TO THE DRIER MAV ONES FOR TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DRIER AIR IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY AND THIS WILL BRING THE LIGHT PCPN TO END...BUT BKN MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE SHOULD
BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOW SUCCESSFULLY IS STILL IN
QUESTION. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO ANY REAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY KSME AND
KLOZ. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
THE PCPN TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MAY BE OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS DEPARTING THE AREA TAKING ITS STRONG WESTERLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY
LIGHT ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.