Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232255 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky
cover through early this evening. So far, valley locations are
staying mixed, with forecast values running cooler than observed.
This should change in the next hour, as drier air in place and
light southerly winds will allow for a typical steep valley drop
off through 10 pm. Light returns on radar are becoming more
sparse with time, and sky cover has thinned somewhat while
gradually shifting east. Have allowed for a slower progression of
thicker clouds to the east, given these trends. Forecast lows in
the mid 30s for the cooler sites look reasonable thus far, and
will wait until the drop off commences before making any
adjustments, if needed. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

The surface high continues to shift off shore of the mid Atlantic
states with southerly return flow kicking into gear across
Kentucky. A mid level warm front is working eastward across
central Kentucky. A band of precipitation associated with this
front had been working east as well. However, strong low level dry
air remains in place across central and eastern Kentucky as south
to southeast flow has kept the dry air in place today. This will
continue to erode the precipitation as it moves eastward this
evening. Hi-res models continue to support this eroding band of
rain scenario. A few sprinkles could be seen in Wayne county, but
not likely to see much elsewhere. We will see a gradual increase
in cloud cover this evening and overnight as the mid level clouds
associated with the front push east. Regardless of the cloud
cover, should still see a modest ridge/valley split tonight given
the dry air over the area. This will allow lows in the eastern
valleys to dip into the mid to upper 30s. Ridges and locations
farther west will stay in the 40s tonight. With the 30s in the
east, some frost will be possible.

By tomorrow, warm front will be off to the north with southerly
winds continuing to pump in mild air. This will send highs to
around 70 by the afternoon. Cloud cover is still a bit in question
as we will be solidly in the warm sector behind the warm front, so
we may see a bit more sunshine in the blended model solution would
otherwise indicate. Will still see a bit of a ridge/valley split
Friday night, but may be more in the extreme valleys as the
gradient will continue to increase. Overall, it should be a milder
night with lows in the 40s (extreme valleys) and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

The extended forecast period begins on Saturday with a active pattern
in place as a vigorous upper level closed low tracks under
ridging positioned over the upper Great Lakes across the mid MS
River Valley and into KY. Retreating ridging over the southeast
CONUS will hold off approach of measurable precip until late
Saturday and possibly into Saturday night. Marginal instability in
place for the approach of the surface cold front will leave a
thunder chance on Saturday evening and through the day on Sunday.
Models though have been trending towards a bigger surge of
southerly moisture with some areas more likely to get up to 0.75
inch.

Once again, stout ridging just off the Atlantic coast will impede
the exit of this first system as it hangs up a bit keeping precip
over eastern Kentucky through Sunday night. By Monday, the active
pattern continues as right on the heels of the previous system
another wave develops over the central Plains and intensifies over
the mid MS River Valley before shifting northeast into the TN and
OH Valleys. Moisture in place across the area and a bit better
instability in place for Monday evening will mean for a better
chance of thunder. As this system hangs up as well, the boundary
will slowly push through eastern Kentucky with some forcing
lingering into Tuesday afternoon and therefore another chance of
thunder with continued moisture in place and above normal temps.

By the middle of next week, a brief bout of high pressure shifts
back over the region with a break in the precip before the next
system will impact the area expected on Thursday. Overall, a more
Spring-like extended expected with some wet weather in the
forecast as well. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Despite high pressure shifting east, VFR conditions will dominate
the next 24 to 36 hours. The impact of the high shifting east will
be slightly stronger winds, generally 5 to 10 mph this afternoon,
then closer to 10 mph for Friday afternoon. Winds should diminish
during the overnight hours as the inversion should be able to set
up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Despite high pressure shifting east, VFR conditions will dominate
the next 24 to 36 hours. The impact of the high shifting east will
be slightly stronger winds, generally 5 to 10 mph this afternoon,
then closer to 10 mph for Friday afternoon. Winds should diminish
during the overnight hours as the inversion should be able to set
up.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ


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