Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 302005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS AREA LIFTS THROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST...A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE SOME PONDING ON ROADS ARE
POSSIBLE...THE AREA IS FULLY GREENED UP AND WITH PWATS ONLY
REACHING JUST BELOW THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION...WILL NOT EXPECT
ANY FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. CONCERNING THE STRONG STORM
THREAT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND
SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. IN
FACT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...ANOTHER INSTANCE OF STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT STOUT. HEADING INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...IF INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND
CAN OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AREA...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE THREAT. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER THE
EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY
SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH
LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR
ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST
PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
AGAIN BY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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