Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 171445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE
HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH
THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE
SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG
MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIGS RANGE QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM JUST
BELOW 1000 FEET UP TO 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BETTER FOG
POTENTIAL NIGHT WILL EXIST TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED MORE TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MAY NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ALL THAT MUCH. IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW WELL WE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IF WE
CAN MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WE MAY AVOID MUCH
OF THE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.