Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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308
FXUS63 KJKL 241551
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1151 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the area on
northwest winds. This will just be the beginning of a stretch of
cool dry weather with even cooler and drier air on the way to
start the new week. Have updated NDFD and associated products
based on latest observational trends but this resulted in only
minor changes to the ongoing forecast for today into tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 808 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Made only minor updates to blend obs into the forecast database.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy tracked east northeast
through KY ahead of a cold front on Friday evening. The
significant precip ended as the tropical remnants departed, and
the Flash Flood Watch was dropped. The original cold front had
become ill defined and was in the process of catching up and
merging with the soon to be decayed tropical remnants. High
pressure building in behind the cold front will bring much drier
air to our region this weekend. Any lingering showers will end
early this morning as drier air overtakes the area. This will set
us up for a pleasant weekend with comfortable humidity and below
normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Models remain in good agreement with a area of Canadian high
pressure building southeast toward the region and remaining in
control of the sensible weather through midweek. This will lead to
fair weather but upper level trough will also dig across the area.
This trough will lead to below normal temperatures, as NAEFS and
ECMWF ensembles standardized anomalies shows significant signals
for below normal temperatures at multiple levels. Given this high
temperatures will top out on the low to mid 70s through Tuesday
and low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s through
Wednesday morning. Now there have been some inconsistencies in the
models on moisture for Tuesday morning and therefore kept with the
drier model blend for now.

The trough does pull east and height rises will ensue across the
region. This will lead to warming temperatures and increases in
moisture, as we see return flow around the aforementioned surface
high now east of eastern KY. Therefore by the end of the period
shower and thunderstorm chances increase amid warming
temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s and increased
instability with MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The biggest
issue here will be does a surface front make it south or is this
more of a diurnally driven/orographic lift situation. Given the
lack of consistency here kept the blend approach which may be too
high given the synoptic frontal boundary reflection from the
Canadian model. However, blended POPs still remain chance and was
comfortable with that at this stage of the forecast process.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 808 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

The last of the precip was exiting southeast out of the state
early this morning. Conditions varied widely at the start of the
period, from LIFR to VFR. Drier air will be arriving today, and
as warming and mixing occur, fog and low clouds will dissipate
this morning. This will leave mainly VFR through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL



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