Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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805
FXUS63 KJKL 220834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
334 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

The latest surface map features a stationary frontal boundary
aligned from central Virginia southwest to the Tennessee/Kentucky
border and then into Mississippi and Louisiana. Aloft, an
amplified pattern remains in place, with an unseasonably strong
ridge across the western Atlantic, and troughing across the West.
This is allowing for deep southwest flow to stream in across the
Mississippi Valley.

Showers have been ongoing across the western two thirds of
Kentucky during the overnight hours, with locations mainly along
and north of I-64 seeing the more sustained precipitation over
the past few hours. Temperatures reflect the stalled frontal
boundary in the vicinity of the area, with mid to upper 40s being
reported north of I-64, and lower 60s noted near the Tennessee
border to the south.

Expect showers to gradually shift southeast with time through this
morning, as a surface wave makes it way northeast along the
boundary, along with a passing short wave trough traversing the
Ohio Valley aloft, helping to lend some upper level support. The
better rainfall totals will be favored across the Bluegrass, with
another half inch or so on top of what falls through 12z this
morning. This should not be enough to cause much in the way of
problems besides some full ditches and moderate response on
creeks and streams.

A relative lull in the activity looks to occur tonight, before
another surface wave tracks along the boundary into Friday. Again,
higher POPs and QPF will be favored to our northwest; however, the
forcing will not be as strong, so QPF does not look to be
excessive. As such, will continue to roll with the ESF, and look
towards this weekend for the potentially excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the
lower 50s in the north, to around 70 in the far south. On Friday,
readings will be back towards record territory once again, with
mid to upper 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

The first part of the extended will feature multiple rounds of
rainfall, which could be heavy at times, especially Saturday night
into Sunday. We may even see a few thunderstorms across the area
Saturday and Saturday night, as a cold front moves through the
region. The rain will last through Sunday morning, before tapering
off and exiting the area Sunday afternoon and evening. After a
period of dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday night, another
round of rain will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, as an area of
low pressure moves across the region.

Temperatures during the period will be cooler than what we`ve seen
the past few days, but should still be above normal each day and
night. The warmest days will be Saturday and Sunday, when day time
highs are forecast to max out from the upper 60s to lower 70s and
the low to mid 60s respectively. The coolest days should be Tuesday
and Wednesday, when highs should top out from the upper 50s to lower
60s across the area.  Nightly lows will vary from the mid to upper
50s Friday night to the mid to upper 30s Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

IFR/LIFR ceilings will linger across most locations through 12z.
Showers will be most prevalent along and west of a line from KSYM
to KLOZ, with coverage more scattered to the east of this line. An
increasing low level jet across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
will bring a threat of low level wind shear from 08z through 15z
across the area. Occasional showers and IFR/MVFR ceilings will
continue to plague the region through the rest of the period.
Variable surface winds will average around 5 kts through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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