Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 192342

National Weather Service Jackson KY
742 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 539 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Forecast is well on track so far for late this afternoon. Loaded
in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for
temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current
conditions. This resulted in only minor changes. All updates have
been published and sent to NDFD/web.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered
near the Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky borders this afternoon.
This surface high in combination with the building ridge will keep
the period warm and dry. The challenges in the forecast will be
how much fog and how low the temperatures go particularly in the
valleys. That said, will remain close to what we have had going
for overnight lows given the colder sites have been running close
the the coldest temperature in the COOP MOS guide. This will keep
upper 30s to lower 40s in the eastern deeper valleys with mid to
upper 40s on the ridges. Friday we will remain sunny and calm with
temperatures topping out into the mid to upper 70s for Friday.
This will be in some cases 10 degrees above average for this time
of year. The upper level ridge does start to march east Friday
night, and some return moisture in the upper levels could lead to
increase high clouds overnight. Despite this we will still see
some ridge/valley temperature split and patchy dense valley fog.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

The pattern remains essentially the same in the extended. We are
expecting a ridge of high pressure to bring warmer than normal
temperatures and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky over the
weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday are forecast to max out in the
mid to upper 70s across the area as the ridge exerts its influence.
The next chance for rain should arrive sometime Sunday night,
although the models are having a difficult time honing in on a
common solution regarding the timing of this precipitation. A large
trough of low pressure aloft, and its associated surface cold front,
will be what trigger rain showers across the area to begin the new
work week. The highest probability of rain should occur from early
Monday morning through late Tuesday morning, as the cold front moves
across the region. The rain should then steadily taper off Tuesday
and Tuesday night, as the trough pulls off to our east. A few rain
showers may linger across the area on Wednesday, as residual
moisture invades the area on the back side of the departing trough.
The passage of this upper level system is expected to usher in
another shot of cold air. After seeing highs peaking in the lower
70s on Monday, a steady cool down is on tap. Max temperatures on
Tuesday may only make into the low to mid 60s as the cooler air
begins its initial push. By Wednesday, the colder air mass should be
firmly entrenched, as will be evidenced by high temperatures in the
mid to upper 50s on that day. Nightly lows should be generally in
the 50s Saturday night through Monday night. After that, the real
cool down begins, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s forecast
for Wednesday morning, and the mid to upper 30s for Thursday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

An area of surface high pressure will continue to provide a
platform for clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky.
The one issue will be mainly river valley fog late tonight into
Friday morning, dropping visibilities below a quarter mile in
spots. The fog should remain limited at TAF sites, but the
potential for some fog creeping out of the river valley at SME/LOZ
seems reasonable near daybreak. Also the best chances based on
the LAMP probabilities resides in these locations. This fog will
clear between 12 and 15Z friday morning and VFR conditions will
resume. The winds wills remain light through the TAF period.




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