000
FXUS63 KJKL 180755 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BESIDES SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING SEEN THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN