000
FXUS63 KJKL 231519
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1119 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHICH HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS STARTING TO LIFT. WILL MAINLY FRESHEN UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO BETTER JIVE WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO START
THE TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS TIME GOES BY...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO
THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREEPING
EASTWARD WILL POSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. HAVE USED A GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT...GRANTING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS AND USING 20 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD FROM
MONDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AND WILL FORGO HAVING ANY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 15
TI 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR STATUS TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN