000
FXUS63 KJKL 151909
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
309 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE EAST COAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST IN THE MEAN FLOW. ONE OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF KY TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SAG INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING A SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL...IN AND OH. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD PRESENT DUE TO CONVECTION THAT OCCURS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. HOWEVER IF ENOUGH HEATING IS REALIZED STEEP WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE WIND...ALTHOUGH HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50 PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES
REVERSED FROM SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
OVERNIGHT. DO EXPECT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE MODELS START OFF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE WEST COAST...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WA BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTER TENDS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP THAT TEND
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME -6 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES WITH ALMOST 3000 JOULES OF CAPE. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE
IS THAT MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY WARM AND AS A RESULT THE TOTAL TOTALS
ARE ONLY AROUND 45 TO 47. THE WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEEK AS WELL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP...THERE MAY BE A SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER ONLY A STORM OR TWO MAY GET UP TO THE SEVERE
CATEGORY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THERE SHOULD
BE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH THEN START WARMING UP EVERY DAY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND IT WILL
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. EVEN SO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OH
TONIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ACROSS EASTERN KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...SBH