000
FXUS63 KJKL 170115 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
915 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

OTHER THAN A COUPLE SPRINKLES IN ELLIOTT COUNTY AND A COUPLE WEAK
SHRA ALONG THE TENN STATE BORDER...ERN KY IS RAIN FREE. HOWEVER...A
MID LEVEL SYSTEM IN MISSOURI IS SPINNING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
MIDDLE TENN THAT IS DIRECTED AT OUR SWRN COUNTIES. CURRENT TIMING HAS
IT MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND DAWN. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
OUR SWRN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WITH SLIGHT CHANCE. RAIN OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING HAS COOLED THE AIR WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT JKL AND SOME
OF OUR STATIONS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH
FCST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND FCST
THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAJORITY OF THE STORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA. ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE WITH MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS...SO CAN NOT EXCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ERUPTING EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
RADAR...BUT FEEL THAT WE ARE NOT TOTALLY FREE OF PCPN UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE A VERY NARROW RIBBON OF RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH MAY HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL FLEMING
COUNTY...WITH MOST AREAS SO FAR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS HAVE REMAINED JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER TO
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT.

EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KY...AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN THE
NDFD BY INCLUDING SOME LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT RAIN AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. AS SUCH WILL END
RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
OK WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
WILL INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK FRONT REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
THE MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING TOWARDS US WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROF WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE LATER
IN THE NIGHT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
AND TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING WORK. WEEK. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS CENTERED AROUND ACTIVE DAYTIME PERIODS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND QUIET NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ONLY LULL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO
BEGIN THE WEEK. INSPITE OF THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
FORECASTING ALOT OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSES RATES...THE
ABSENCE OF A SOLID TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT HOW STRONG
ANY STORMS CAN...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS...WILL BE EXPECTING MOSTLY GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF ALL OF THE
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE REALIZED...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS FORMING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT AREA EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE TO END OUT THE
WEEK...AS CANADIAN AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR ALL BUT JKL. AFTERNOON PCPN HAS PROVIDED VERY MOIST AIR
AND SOME STEAM FOG CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED DRIFTING UP THE VALLEYS.
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SOME OF THAT FOG DRIFTING UP AND
OVER THE AIRPORT. WILL FCST SOME TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT JKL.
FEEL IT WILL TAKE SOME AIR MOVEMENT TO BRING THE VALLEY FOG UP TO THE
AIRPORT AND ANY CALMING OF THE WIND WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO SETTLE BACK
INTO THE VALLEY. SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS AROUND 18Z...BUT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOZ/SME AS
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DUSTY