000
FXUS63 KJKL 141750 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SKY DATA. ALSO MATCHED UP THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS TO THE NEAR TERM
T/TD/WIND GRIDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS KENTUCKY ATTM DUE TO THESE
TWO FEATURES SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO KENTUCKY LATER TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO THE
EAST. ON SATELLITE...THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER
THE CWA WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THAT FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ASIDE FROM SOME
MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN TO THE CURRENT
OBS AND TRENDS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. UPDATES WILL
BE SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THIS UPDATE WAS PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FROST AND FOG FROM THE GRIDS
AND FORECAST THIS MORNING. ALSO TOUCHED UP SKY COVER...T AND TD GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT
SHORTLY...INCLUDING A FRESH ZFP AND HWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY TRENDS. GETTING REPORTS OF
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AND FROST. SO REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND EXPECT THEM TO
PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA BY SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST...SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO IN SEVERAL OF OUR
MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH...PATCHY FROST AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN THROUGH DAWN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE THEIR RISE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN GENERAL THIS WILL MEAN A DRY SHORT TERM. WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLY WARMER TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
BRING IN WARMER AIR FROM OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH JUST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS WILL BEGIN THE SUSTAINED WARM UP
THAT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS BEEN WAITING FOR THROUGHOUT SPRING.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE CONSALL FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DIURNAL TRENDS MATCHED FROM OBS. DID MAKE
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS...BASED ON RELATIVE TERRAIN...FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH MOS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A TROUGH OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. THE DIFFICULT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MOVEMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST IN A RATHER WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS DIGGING IN ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE POSITION OF A
WEAK WARM FRONT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AND THE
POSITING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING OF
THE FRONT AND THE HIGH...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TENDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND PUT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CAPPING. THE NEXT GOOD COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HEAT AND
SHOWERS...IT SHOULD BE A MAJOR TASK TO KEEP THE GRASS MOWED THIS
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL WARM MOIST PATTERN IS HIGH...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST OF KENTUCKY BY EVENING. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS BEFORE THEY SETTLE WITH SUNSET. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF