Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FGUS73 KJKL 031405
ESFJKL
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE FLOOD RISK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

This outlook is valid March 4th through March 17TH 2016.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/08/2016 - 06/06/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville        27.0   33.0   38.0 :  55   58   31   34   19   19
Pineville         1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 :  28   31   10   11   <5    5
Williamsburg        21.0   27.5   32.0 :  64   65   33   34   19   19
Baxter              16.0   18.0   20.0 :  20   21   12   13    9    9
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg          20.0   24.0   30.0 :  48   50   11    9   <5   <5
Ravenna             21.0   25.0   31.0 :  65   70   46   50   25   31
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville           35.0   42.0   50.0 :  17   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Prestonsburg        40.0   43.0   46.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Paintsville         35.0   38.0   42.0 :  11   17    7    9   <5   <5
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard              20.0   27.0   33.0 :  15   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Jackson             29.0   31.0   40.0 :  25   28   21   22    6    6
:Cumberland River
Cumberland          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Red River
Clay City           17.0   19.0   23.0 :  25   24   17   17   <5   <5
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City        21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville          27.0   32.0   38.0 :  48   43   25   24   14   11
Oneida              29.0   34.0   38.0 :  17   18    7    7   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/08/2016 - 06/06/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville          9.2   12.9   20.7   28.7   34.5   43.1   49.5
Pineville           981.1  982.6  987.9  994.9 1002.9 1010.0 1018.8
Williamsburg         11.2   13.0   18.9   23.6   29.2   36.0   37.3
Baxter                3.5    4.4    9.1   11.8   14.7   18.6   25.4
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           15.3   16.1   17.7   19.8   22.1   24.2   26.5
Ravenna              16.8   17.7   19.2   23.8   30.8   37.3   43.5
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville            11.5   13.3   17.6   26.5   31.5   37.7   39.3
Prestonsburg          9.1   11.0   16.8   26.1   32.6   36.0   39.0
Paintsville           9.3   11.1   15.8   22.4   30.6   35.4   40.2
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                5.7    6.7    9.5   13.3   18.0   21.0   24.1
Jackson               7.2    8.8   13.0   21.5   29.1   35.5   41.8
:Cumberland River
Cumberland            4.9    5.6    7.2    8.8    9.8   10.8   11.8
:Red River
Clay City             8.7    9.1   10.6   13.8   16.9   20.9   22.0
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          8.7    9.0    9.8   12.3   14.7   17.3   19.3
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville           10.9   13.2   17.4   26.6   31.9   40.5   43.2
Oneida               12.4   13.8   16.2   20.8   25.1   32.4   34.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/08/2016 - 06/06/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville          2.8    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
Pineville           977.4  977.3  977.0  976.8  976.7  976.7  976.6
Williamsburg          4.6    4.2    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2
Baxter                1.8    1.7    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           10.1    9.9    9.6    9.4    9.3    9.1    9.1
Ravenna              11.3   11.1   10.7   10.5   10.4   10.3   10.2
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville             7.4    7.3    7.0    6.7    6.6    6.4    6.3
Prestonsburg          3.8    3.4    3.0    2.5    2.2    2.1    2.0
Paintsville           4.9    4.4    4.0    3.5    3.1    2.8    2.8
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0
Jackson               2.1    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.4    1.4    1.3
:Cumberland River
Cumberland            3.7    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4
:Red River
Clay City             3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          6.8    6.8    6.7    6.5    6.5    6.3    6.3
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville            4.5    4.4    4.0    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.5
Oneida                7.8    7.7    7.3    7.0    6.8    6.7    6.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

THIS OUTLOOKS CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING
DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR
INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY. NO SNOWPACK CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...NOR IS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FORECAST.

FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...PRECIPITATION AVERAGED BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOIL MOISTURE WAS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND BEGINNING OF MARCH.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS STREAMFLOWS
FOR THE CUMBERLAND...BIG SANDY...AND KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS WERE ALL
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A BRIEF AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE OVERALL STREAMFLOW. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID MARCH 10TH THROUGH MARCH 16TH CALLS
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS STRETCH OF TIME...NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
46 DEGREES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS JUST OVER 4 INCHES. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK
FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
DATA AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV. CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA. CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT
WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH. CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA
ARE AVAILABLE AT LRL-
APPS.LRL.USACE.ARMY.MIL/WC/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.

VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

$$

JMW





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