Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
000
FGUS73 KJKL 152044
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-161200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST THU FEB 15 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook covers eastern Kentucky.
The flood risk is near to below normal for this time of year. This
means that minor flooding is expected, with some instances of
moderate flooding possible.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 32 43 13 18 <5 <5
Pineville 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 39 42 19 22 5 8
Williamsburg 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 55 62 24 32 13 18
Baxter 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 24 34 16 21 10 15
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 45 54 <5 19 <5 <5
Ravenna 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 62 70 36 48 6 31
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 22 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
Prestonsburg 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 19 22 12 14 <5 7
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 26 18 8 <5 <5 <5
Jackson 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 22 33 18 27 <5 8
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Red River
Clay City 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 27 39 21 26 10 9
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 42 48 26 32 12 13
Oneida 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 12 21 <5 7 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 10.4 11.3 20.2 24.2 28.1 34.2 36.1
Pineville 982.2 983.2 991.6 997.9 1007.0 1014.5 1019.4
Williamsburg 11.3 11.7 17.1 22.0 27.2 33.2 35.2
Baxter 4.5 5.5 9.3 12.9 15.8 19.6 24.9
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 15.7 16.2 17.3 19.6 21.6 23.1 23.6
Ravenna 17.3 17.5 18.9 23.0 26.6 28.7 31.4
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 10.1 12.5 14.8 24.1 34.2 37.8 39.3
Prestonsburg 7.1 9.5 14.5 23.2 31.1 35.1 36.5
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville 8.6 10.7 15.2 24.4 32.4 38.7 41.6
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 6.1 6.4 7.6 11.8 20.5 26.3 28.5
Jackson 8.1 8.6 11.8 18.2 27.5 35.2 39.9
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 4.8 5.1 6.5 8.8 10.2 11.8 13.3
:Red River
Clay City 7.5 8.3 10.8 13.1 17.4 23.0 23.8
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 8.4 9.1 9.8 12.6 15.0 16.7 17.8
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 12.1 12.8 16.7 24.4 32.3 39.1 40.3
Oneida 13.1 13.9 16.2 20.8 25.0 29.8 32.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Pineville 977.3 977.2 977.1 976.9 976.8 976.7 976.7
Williamsburg 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3
Baxter 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.3
Ravenna 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.3
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.1
Prestonsburg 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
Jackson 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
:Red River
Clay City 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8
Oneida 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Precipitation and temperatures across the area over the past 2 months
have averaged above normal. Current soil moisture values are running
slightly below normal for the middle of February, with streamflows
and reservoirs currently running above normal.
Precipitation over the next week looks to average between a half inch
and an inch, close to normal for that time of year.
The 6 to 10 day outlook, which runs from February 20th through
February 24th, calls for above normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook, which runs from February 22nd
through February 28th, calls for above normal temperatures and
precipitation.
The outlook for March calls for near normal temperatures and
precipitation. Normal temperatures for March are in the upper 40s and
normal precipitation is between 4.5 and 5 inches.
The seasonal outlook, which covers March through May, calls for above
normal temperatures and precipitation.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.
Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.
Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.
Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water
information.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
February 29th.
$$
GEOGERIAN