Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EST THU MAR 02 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook covers eastern Kentucky and is valid from March 2nd
through March 15th.

The flood risk for eastern Kentucky is near normal for this time of
year.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                   Valid Period:  03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville        27.0   33.0   38.0 :  54   58   32   35   19   21
Pineville         1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 :  29   32   10   13   <5    5
Williamsburg        21.0   27.5   32.0 :  63   66   33   35   18   19
Baxter              16.0   18.0   20.0 :  20   22   12   14    9    9
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg          20.0   24.0   30.0 :  50   50   12   10   <5   <5
Ravenna             21.0   25.0   31.0 :  64   70   45   51   25   32
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville           35.0   42.0   50.0 :  16   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
Prestonsburg        40.0   43.0   46.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Paintsville         35.0   38.0   42.0 :  11   20    7   12   <5   <5
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard              20.0   27.0   33.0 :  19   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
Jackson             29.0   31.0   40.0 :  28   30   23   24    7    7
:Cumberland River
Cumberland          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Red River
Clay City           17.0   19.0   23.0 :  29   24   21   17   <5   <5
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City        21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville          27.0   32.0   38.0 :  48   47   26   24   14   11
Oneida              29.0   34.0   38.0 :  18   18    7    7   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville          9.0   11.7   20.4   28.4   34.8   42.7   49.0
Pineville           980.9  982.3  987.5  997.6 1002.9 1009.8 1018.6
Williamsburg         10.6   12.3   18.6   23.8   29.2   35.5   37.2
Baxter                3.6    4.7    8.8   11.8   14.6   18.6   25.3
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           15.0   16.1   17.5   20.0   22.1   24.3   26.2
Ravenna              16.4   17.7   19.0   23.6   30.9   37.2   42.7
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville            10.2   12.1   16.6   26.1   31.0   37.6   39.1
Prestonsburg          6.8    9.1   15.0   25.5   31.8   36.1   38.9
Paintsville           8.0    9.7   14.7   21.9   29.8   35.2   39.9
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                5.8    6.7    9.4   13.2   18.0   23.0   25.3
Jackson               6.2    7.7   11.6   20.3   30.3   36.3   41.6
:Cumberland River
Cumberland            4.7    5.4    7.2    8.8    9.8   10.8   11.8
:Red River
Clay City             8.5    9.0   10.3   13.0   17.9   22.1   22.7
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          8.4    8.7    9.6   12.3   14.6   17.2   19.2
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville           10.8   13.1   17.9   26.6   32.2   40.4   43.2
Oneida               12.4   13.8   16.3   20.7   25.7   32.3   34.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville          2.8    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
Pineville           977.4  977.3  977.0  976.8  976.7  976.7  976.6
Williamsburg          4.6    4.2    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2
Baxter                1.8    1.7    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           10.1    9.9    9.5    9.4    9.3    9.2    9.2
Ravenna              11.4   11.2   10.8   10.6   10.5   10.4   10.4
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville             7.3    7.2    6.9    6.6    6.4    6.3    6.2
Prestonsburg          3.5    3.1    2.8    2.5    2.1    2.0    1.8
Paintsville           4.6    4.2    3.9    3.5    3.1    2.9    2.8
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0
Jackson               2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3
:Cumberland River
Cumberland            3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4
:Red River
Clay City             2.8    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          6.7    6.7    6.6    6.5    6.4    6.3    6.3
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville            4.5    4.4    4.0    3.8    3.7    3.5    3.5
Oneida                7.9    7.7    7.3    7.0    6.8    6.7    6.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

This outlook calls for a near normal chance of flooding based on
current conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected
precipitation over the next few weeks. Minor flooding means minimal
or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or
inconvenience.

Snowmelt and ice jams are usually not a factor for flooding in this
part of the country. There is currently no snowpack across eastern
Kentucky.

For February, precipitation averaged one to two inches below normal.
Soil moisture was near to slightly below normal. At the end of
February, reservoir levels across eastern Kentucky were near
seasonal pool levels, while streamflows were running below normal
for this time of the year.

So far for March, precipitation has averaged well above normal, with
most locations receiving near an inch of rainfall on March 1st. This
has led to elevated streamflows across the area; however, over the
next several days, precipitation will average below normal, allowing
streams and creeks to return to near normal levels for this time of
year. Temperatures will start off cooler, but will be trending well
above normal over the next several days.

The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid March 9th through March 15th, calls
for above normal temperatures, and equal chances of near, above, or
below normal precipitation. Normal precipitation for this period is
just under an inch and normal temperatures are around 46 degrees.

The outlook for March calls for above normal temperatures and equal
chances of near, above, or below normal precipitation across eastern
Kentucky. Normal precipitation for March is just over 4 inches.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature forecast and current soil moisture
data at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current snowpack data are available
at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at
water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area
are available at
lrl-apps.lsl.usace.army.mil/wc/reports/lkreport.html.

Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water
information.

$$

Geogerian



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