Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FGUS73 KJKL 262035
ESFJKL
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-272145-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
REMAIN ON THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH THIS SNOW
HOLDING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WATER IN IT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BORDERING VIRGINIA AND IN NEARBY PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. THESE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS NEAR
THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA ARE THE HEADWATER REGIONS FOR THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY...
AS WELL AS THE LEVISA FORK OF THE BIG SANDY RIVER AND TUG FORK OF
THE BIG SANDY RIVER.

AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO WARM AND BEGIN TO MELT THE SNOWPACK QUITE
RAPIDLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL AT TIMES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS THIS WEATHER UNFOLDS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AND THE HEADWATER
REGIONS OF THE LARGER RIVERS. THIS WILL SATURATE THE GROUND AND
PRIME THE REGION FOR POTENTIAL LATER FLOODING. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE SUBSTANTIAL RISES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. AS THE WATER COLLECTS INTO THE LARGER CREEKS
AND RIVERS...SIGNIFICANT RISES AND FLOODING APPEAR POSSIBLE...IF
NOT LIKELY AND MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. SOME
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN OVER A DECADE.

VISIT OUR INTERNET WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JKL OR LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON
THIS UPCOMING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JP


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