Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FGUS73 KJKL 202158
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-061200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

...THE FLOOD RISK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 20TH THROUGH MARCH 6TH 2014.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...                    VALID PERIOD:  2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BARBOURVILLE        27.0   33.0   38.0 :  49   49   23   24   12   14
CUMBERLAND          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PINEVILLE         1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 :  24   24   10   10   <5   <5
WILLIAMSBURG        21.0   27.5   32.0 :  66   65   33   33   18   17
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
BOONEVILLE          27.0   32.0   38.0 :  34   31   20   19    9    9
ONEIDA              29.0   34.0   38.0 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BAXTER              16.0   18.0   20.0 :   8    9    5    6   <5   <5
:RED RIVER
CLAY CITY           17.0   19.0   23.0 :  20   22   10   15   <5   <5
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY        21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KENTUCKY RIVER
HEIDELBERG          20.0   24.0   30.0 :  47   47    9   11   <5   <5
RAVENNA             21.0   25.0   31.0 :  72   71   45   46   26   27
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD              20.0   27.0   33.0 :  12   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
JACKSON             29.0   31.0   40.0 :  21   22   13   17   <5   <5
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE           35.0   42.0   50.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRESTONSBURG        40.0   43.0   46.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PAINTSVILLE         35.0   38.0   42.0 :  18   18   11   12   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.


...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BARBOURVILLE         11.7   13.5   21.2   27.0   32.5   39.1   44.2
CUMBERLAND            5.2    5.6    6.1    7.0    8.7    9.6   10.7
PINEVILLE           982.1  983.1  989.5  995.9 1001.6 1010.0 1012.8
WILLIAMSBURG         13.0   15.0   19.5   23.9   29.5   35.2   38.6
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
BOONEVILLE           13.4   13.8   16.3   23.0   29.4   37.7   39.8
ONEIDA               13.9   14.4   16.4   18.8   22.9   29.0   30.4
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BAXTER                4.5    5.2    7.1    9.7   12.1   14.7   18.1
:RED RIVER
CLAY CITY             8.2    9.0   11.1   13.8   16.1   19.1   20.6
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY          8.5    9.1    9.6   10.8   12.6   15.2   17.2
:KENTUCKY RIVER
HEIDELBERG           16.8   17.1   18.1   19.8   21.6   23.7   26.4
RAVENNA              18.6   19.0   20.7   23.7   31.4   37.7   41.8
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD                6.2    6.7    9.3   12.3   16.7   20.6   23.2
JACKSON               9.6   10.8   14.0   19.7   28.1   31.9   35.6
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE            12.1   14.0   16.6   24.5   30.2   32.8   36.3
PRESTONSBURG          9.9   11.9   17.8   24.5   32.9   35.7   37.9
PAINTSVILLE          10.8   12.7   18.4   24.3   31.8   38.9   41.2

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING DUE TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...SNOW PACK...AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR
INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS NO CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA.

SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SOIL MOISTURE WAS ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL
AND STREAMFLOWS WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY
BASINS AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE KENTUCKY RIVER BASIN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF
THE KENTUCKY RIVER...WHERE STREAMFLOWS ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN COLDER AND DRIER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO RETURN THE ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS BACK TO
WITHIN NORMAL RANGES.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FEBRUARY 28TH THOUGH MARCH 6TH CALLS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS JUST UNDER AN INCH AND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 43 DEGREES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION.
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS JUST OVER 4 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FORECASTS AND CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
DATA AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS. CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE
AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV/NSA. CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE
AVAILABLE AT WWW.WATER.USGS.GOV. VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JKL FOR MORE LOCAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
MARCH 6TH.

$$

GEOGERIAN












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