Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FGUS73 KJKL 181557
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-251600-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1157 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  6/16/2014 - 9/14/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BARBOURVILLE        27.0   33.0   38.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
CUMBERLAND          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PINEVILLE         1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WILLIAMSBURG        21.0   27.5   32.0 :   8    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
BOONEVILLE          27.0   32.0   38.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ONEIDA              29.0   34.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BAXTER              16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RED RIVER
CLAY CITY           17.0   19.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY        21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KENTUCKY RIVER
HEIDELBERG          20.0   24.0   30.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
RAVENNA             21.0   25.0   31.0 :  11   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD              20.0   27.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JACKSON             29.0   31.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE           35.0   42.0   50.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRESTONSBURG        40.0   43.0   46.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PAINTSVILLE         35.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 6/16/2014 - 9/14/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BARBOURVILLE          2.8    3.1    3.8    5.8   13.1   24.9   29.9
CUMBERLAND            3.7    3.7    3.8    4.2    4.7    5.5    6.7
PINEVILLE           977.5  977.7  978.2  979.5  982.7  988.2  997.0
WILLIAMSBURG          4.3    4.8    6.3    8.7   13.0   20.5   22.0
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
BOONEVILLE            5.1    5.5    7.0    9.8   12.1   21.3   28.5
ONEIDA                8.5    8.8    9.6   11.5   15.2   16.4   19.7
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BAXTER                1.8    1.8    2.0    2.6    3.4    7.2    8.1
:RED RIVER
CLAY CITY             2.4    3.0    4.6    6.5    9.2   14.2   15.7
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY          6.6    6.9    7.4    8.2    9.0   10.2   10.8
:KENTUCKY RIVER
HEIDELBERG           10.0   10.9   11.8   13.3   15.6   18.9   20.3
RAVENNA              11.4   12.4   13.1   14.6   17.0   21.5   24.5
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD                4.4    4.4    5.0    5.6    6.3   10.0   13.2
JACKSON               2.1    2.3    2.9    4.2    6.9   13.7   19.2
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE             6.5    6.8    7.9    9.4   13.6   19.0   19.6
PRESTONSBURG          2.3    2.4    3.8    5.4   10.0   15.1   18.0
PAINTSVILLE           3.2    3.3    4.7    6.0   10.0   14.5   18.1

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/JKL FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED JUNE 25.

$$







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