Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS53 KJKL 051025
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
525 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IMPACTED THE
REGION YESTERDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS TAKEN HOLD AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG LLVL INVERSION IN PLACE, MOISTURE HAS
BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AND WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE
FORM OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT
IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, FOCUS SHIFTS TO ANOTHER STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY,
REACHING MISSISSIPPI BY THIS EVENING, TN LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN
WILL TRAVERSE EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE IT PULLS A STRONG SURGE OF WARM MOIST
GULF OF MEXICO AIR INTO THE REGION STARTING TODAY. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY ENCOMPASS EASTERN KY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, STARTING THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD THEN LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN AND
CUTS OFF BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING. ALL POINTS SOUTH
OF THE JACKSON NWS OFFICE COULD SEE 1.00 TO 1.40 INCHES OF RAIN
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHILE GENERALLY 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG W TO SW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.


KYZ068-079-083-084-052130-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY
525 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....19.
VENT RATE...........POOR (18900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................20.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......10 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    RAIN LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................9.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......100 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.39 - 0.71 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....35.
VENT RATE...........MARGINAL (34800 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................24 INCREASING TO 37 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.44 - 0.67 INCHES.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-119-052130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...INEZ
525 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....25.
VENT RATE...........POOR (25000 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................24.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......10 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................8.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......80 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.36 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....25.
VENT RATE...........POOR (25500 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................27.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.47 - 0.68 INCHES.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-052130-
JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...LONDON...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
525 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....21.
VENT RATE...........POOR (21200 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................20.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......10 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    RAIN LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................8.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......100 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.25 - 0.69 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....26.
VENT RATE...........POOR (26100 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................29.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.50 - 0.70 INCHES.


$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH IN THE EVENING.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
JMW



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