Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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431
FNUS53 KJKL 041008
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
608 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...COOL AND DAMP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. A QUICK BURST OF CHILLY AIR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH UNUSUALLY COLD AIR
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN TAKES CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A SHORT DRY
SPELL BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE WEEKEND.

KYZ068-079-083-084-042015-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY
608 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....139.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (138900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................84.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......100 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.14 INCHES.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................37 DECREASING TO 20 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.09 INCHES.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....79.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (78900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................40 INCREASING TO 54 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......40 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.04 INCHES.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-119-042015-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
INEZ
608 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....135.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (135300 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................81.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......100 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.11 INCHES.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................56 DECREASING TO 19 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.13 INCHES.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....86.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (86400 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................18 INCREASING TO 58 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.06 - 0.22 INCHES.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-042015-
JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...LONDON...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
608 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....121.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (120900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................72.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......90 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.10 INCHES.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................54 DECREASING TO 17 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......100 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.08 - 0.20 INCHES.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....85.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (84800 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................19 INCREASING TO 55 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.04 - 0.24 INCHES.


$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH LATE.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
KAS



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