Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS53 KJKL 290935
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
535 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...DRY TODAY BUT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TRACK INTO THE MS
VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY SEND A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN FACT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A SOAKING
RAIN OF AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED.

KYZ068-079-083-084-292030-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY
535 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 0 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....40.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (40300 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................28 INCREASING TO 41 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................22 DECREASING TO 6 LATE.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......30 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.03 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. A
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.
VENT RATE...........MARGINAL (31900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 29 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......80 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.25 - 0.40 INCHES.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-119-292030-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
INEZ
535 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....58.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (57600 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................47.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST LATE.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................36 DECREASING TO 7 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......30 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.03 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9.
VENT RATE...........POOR (9200 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................12.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......80 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.22 - 0.36 INCHES.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-292030-
JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...LONDON...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
535 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-38 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (56700 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................46.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST LATE.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................35 DECREASING TO 5 LATE.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......20 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.03 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....30.
VENT RATE...........MARGINAL (30000 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 24 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......80 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.18 - 0.35 INCHES.


$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
JP



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